GBP/USD pares gains as Brexit uncertainty continues

4 October, 2019

Australian stocks were relatively unchanged today after the RBA released the financial stability report. In the report, the bank said that the world was facing an economic slowdown as the trade war continues. This could get worse as the US prepares to add tariffs of more than $7 billion on European goods. In Australia, while the economy remains under pressure, the bank said that its previous two rate cuts had had a positive impact on the economy. Meanwhile, retail sales rose by 0.4% in August after remaining unchanged in the previous month.

AUD/USD. The AUD/USD pair rose slightly after the RBA statement and the retail sales numbers. As of this writing, the pair is trading at 0.6753. On the 30-minute chart, this price is far higher than the weekly low of 0.6669. This price is above the Ichimoku Cloud. It is also slightly above the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The RSI remains slightly below the overbought level of 70. The pair will likely continue moving higher as it tries to test the important level of 0.6775.

EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair was unchanged as traders waited for the official nonfarm payrolls report from the government. Consensus estimates are that the unemployment rate will remain at 3.7% and that the economy added 140k jobs in September. This will be higher than the August numbers of 130k. Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 133k from the previous 96k. The average weekly hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.4. Average hourly earnings are expected to have remained unchanged at 3.2%. On an MoM basis, wages are expected to have declined slightly to 0.3% from 0.4%. On Wednesday, data from ADP showed that the economy added 135k. This was lower than the expected 145k. Also, there was a big revision of the data released in September. August’s gain of 195k was lowered to 157k.

As of this writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0977. On the 30-minute chart, the pair has been forming a triangular pattern. This is usually the case ahead of major economic numbers. The price is along the middle line of the Bollinger Bands while the RSI is neutral at 50 as expected. The pair could breakout in either direction. The key levels to watch will be 1.0966 and 1.1000.

GBP/USD. After making some substantial gains yesterday, the GBP/USD pair pared those gains. This happened after the European Parliament told Boris Johnson that his plans for the Irish border did not “even remotely” amount to an acceptable deal for the EU. This statement was released shortly after Boris Johnson delivered a speech explaining his thoughts. The statement from the EU said that the basis for any exit agreement should be based on the need to safeguard peace and stability in Ireland, as well as protect citizens and the EU’s legal order. This was an indirect method of saying that the EU would not accept a deal that does not have a backstop.

The GBP/USD pair declined to a low of 1.2335. This is after the pair reached a high of 1.2412 yesterday. The price is along the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The price is along the middle line of the Bollinger Bands level. The RSI has been falling as well. The pair could be a little volatile as traders receive more news on Brexit and as the US releases its jobs numbers.


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