Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA suddenly fell

July 4, 2013

The US dollar took a break in its growth on Wednesday amid ambiguous statistics and positions balance before the ECB meeting and a holiday in the USA on Thursday. Weak non-manufacturing PMI which accounts for more than 80% of all the economy also helped the decline.

According to the ISM survey Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA fell to its annual low 52.2 points in June in comparison with the reading in May - 53.7 while it was expected to rise up to 54.1. The subindex of new orders and PMI subindex have fallen while employment subindex has risen. Other US data released on Wednesday also were ambiguous. 

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce the U.S. trade deficit in May rose to $45 billion while it was forecasted to drop to $40.1 billion. The imports grew by 1.9%, the exports decreased by 0.3% - as a result the US trade deficit has risen by 12%. At the same time labor market data turned out good.

Unemployment claims decreased by 5 thousand to 343 thousand last week although a growth up to 345 thousand was expected. ADP employment change rose by 188 thousand in June with the forecast of +160 thousand. 

ADP Employment Change in the USA

The euro rose on Wednesday before the ECB meeting on Thursday despite the ambiguous data and the growth of political tensions in Portugal. Retail sales in the euro-zone grew by 1% m/m with the forecasted growth only by 0.3%; and within the year the sales decreased only by 0.1% while they were forecasted to fall by 1.9%. Meanwhile the final services PMI grew less than expected – to 48.3 against the initial estimate of 48.6 points. 

The pound showed a significant growth after the release of positive services PMI which is ¾ of all the country’s economy. In June services PMI grew from 54.9 in May to 56.9 – the highest level since March, 2011 while a decrease to 54.5 was expected. New orders growth rate turned out the highest since June, 2007.

The yen grew on Wednesday amid the correction of stock markets and Nikkei futures decrease. The strengthening of the yen was also supported by growing tensions in Portugal. This week several ministers of Portugal offered a resignation including the minister of finance. The yield of 10-year Portuguese bonds rose on Wednesday above 8% for the first time since November, 2012.

The Australian dollar fell on Wednesday to the August, 2010 low after the RBA governor Stevens had announced that AUD was still at a high level despite the decrease by almost 10% since early April. Besides, the further decline of the Australian currency was possible, which would support the economy growth. Retails sales in Australia also turned out worse than expected. The decrease of non-manufacturing PMI growth rate also had a negative effect. Non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.9 points in June from 54.3 in May.

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