Bitcoin Hinting Another Bear Flagpole

14 August, 2018

So it seems from the latest Bitcoin price action which, during the weekend, jumped more than 7.5% and promised an extended breakout, but fell short of delivering it. This Monday started with minor pullbacks from the early 6550-fiat level during the Asian trading session. However, the growing selling sentiment around the psychological resistance area eventually erased the gains, bringing us back towards 6012-6138 area.

Technically, we are looking at BTC/USD forming a flagpole in pursuance of a breakout. It is the part of an overall bearish pennant pattern we have noticed since the pair established the previous peak at 8512-fiat. The almost-symmetrical triangle in orange provides a view of expected hop-on-hop-off levels for day traders, should the price consolidate sideways. But as the volume depletes, and a bias conflict is established, an extended bearish momentum would ensue.

Other than that, we are in a bearish bias on a 4H chart. The BTC/USD pair is clearly trading below its 200H, 100H and 50H moving average. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicators, at the same time, are going back to the neutral range. There is still some strong buying sentiment in 6012-6138 area, but it would be worthless until the market attempts an upside breakout around 6500-area.

So we are back to our previous range defined by 6138-fiat as interim support and 6290-fiat as our interim resistance level. Obviously, our intrarange strategy looks less suitable for the sheer narrowness of this new range. But we have already placed a long position towards 6290-fiat on a bounce from 6138-fiat. If the support is broken, we will put a long position towards 6500-fiat, our psychological resistance – ignoring 6455-fiat. At the same time, our stop loss will be around 3-pips below the entry position.

In the event of a pullback from resistance, our natural short target would be at 6137-fiat. A stop-loss 2-pips above the entry position will define our risk for this intrarange trade.

We have discussed a huge possibility of a bear pole formation. Should it happen, it would be wise to wait for the price to break below 6138-fiat first before putting any short positions. If the level is broken, then we will initially test 6050-fiat as our primary intermediary downside target, while keeping our sight towards 6012 area as the primary downside target.


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