The US dollar was traded almost unchanged on Friday

July 29, 2013

The US dollar was traded almost unchanged on Friday against the euro and the pound but it fell against the yen and commodity currencies despite the US consumer confidence growth that reached its high for 6 years. Revised U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 85.1 in July against 84.1 in June and preliminary reading 83.9 for July having exceeded the expectations at 84. The dollar lost almost 1.2% according to the dollar index for a week. A slight growth against the dollar was shown by the yen and New Zealand dollar.

This week falls on the start of the month and may become the most important one in the whole coming month and set the direction of trading till the end of the summer. This week meetings of three most important central banks of the world will be held and the US labor market report will be published. On Wednesday the results of 2-day Fed meeting will be released and on Thursday – the results of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

On Wednesday all the attention will be drawn to the FOMC Statement. Last week there appeared rumors that the Fed would probably lower unemployment and inflation thresholds to start tightening monetary policy. If they are lowered, QE tapering off may be delayed for a longer term. No changes in the policy of the ECB and the BoE are expected but the attention as always will be drawn by the press conference of Mario Draghi by the end of the meeting. The Bank of England can again publish a rate statement as at the previous meeting.  

In the euro-zone Spanish Flash GDP for the second quarter and confidence indexes from the European Commission will be published on Tuesday. Euro-zone business confidence is expected to rise a little in July again. On Wednesday the euro-zone unemployment data and inflation preliminary data will be released. On Thursday there will be a release of manufacturing PMI of Spain and Italy and the final readings of these indexes of France, Germany and the whole euro-zone. 

In Germany GfK Consumer Climate and preliminary inflation data will be released on Tuesday; retail sales and Non-Farm Payrolls – on Wednesday. In Great Britain Manufacturing PMI & Construction PMI will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. On Monday there will be a release of BoE lending report and CBI Realized Sales. On Tuesday - GfK Consumer Confidence.

In Australia Building Approvals data will be released on Tuesday and Private Sector Credit data - on Wednesday. Quarterly reports of import prices, export prices and producer price index will be released on Friday. In Canada GDP data will be released on Wednesday. In Japan preliminary industrial production data will be released on Tuesday. In China official Manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday and Non-Manufacturing PMI – on Saturday.

There will be a release of a lot of US important data. Pending Home Sales are released on Monday. CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI – on Tuesday. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter and ADP Employment Change – on Wednesday. ISM Manufacturing PMI – on Thursday. And very important Non-Farm Payrolls statistics data will finish the week on Friday.

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