31 July, 2013
The dollar was traded upwards on Tuesday against almost all major currencies before the announcement of the FOMC meeting results which will be held on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is supposed not to reduce stimulus volumes in July but it will clear up further plans concerning the strategy of the exit from the stimulus programs. ScotiaBank experts believe that the FOMC can declare straightly about the reduce of QE3 in September lowering at the same time the target level of unemployment from 6.5% to 6%, its achievement will serve as guidemark for the first rates increase.
The US data released on Tuesday were rather weak. So, CB Consumer Confidence decreased more than expected in July – to 80.3 points while a drop to 81.1 points was expected. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI rose by 12.2% in May compared with the same period in the previous year while a growth by 12.4% was expected. Although housing price data turned out a little lower than forecasted, price growth was marked in all 20 countries.
At the same time euro-zone statistics data have been generally positive, which allowed the euro to maintain and not to fall by the end of the day. Euro-Zone Economic Confidence from the European Commission grew in July to its high since May, 2012 and amounted to 92.5 p. against 91.3 p. in prior month. Spanish economy decline rates slowed down – Spanish GDP decrease in the second quarter accounted for only 0.1% after the fall by 0.5% in the previous quarter, which suggests that the recession should be over soon and the economy could return to growth.
Inflation in Germany grew more than expected in July to 1.9% at an annual rate while its drop to 1.7% was expected. German consumer sentiment rose to almost 6-year high in August amid a good situation at the local labor market and moderate inflation. The leading GfK Consumer Climate rose to 7 p. in August compared with 6.8 p. in July.
The yen dropped after the release of weak Japanese data but then recovered. Industrial production in Japan fell by 3.3% compared with the prior month after 6-month growth, which has become the worst reading since October, 2012. Household Spending decreased by 0.4% in June at an annual rate, while a growth by 1.3% was expected. At the same time unemployment rate dropped to its low 3.9% in June since the end of 2008 from 4.1% that maintained a few months in a row.
The Australian dollar slumped after the speech of the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens. Speaking just a week before the next RBA meeting he said that despite the AUD decline, the current inflation couldn’t prevent the further interest rates decrease if it would be necessary for economic stimulus. He added that further fall of the Australian dollar wouldn’t be a surprise. The AUD was also negatively affected by a sharp decline of Building Approvals in June, which fell by 6.9% against the expected growth by 2%. At an annual rate the reading dropped by 13% while no changes were forecasted.
On Tuesday March, 18 the US dollar was traded mixed before the announcement of 2-days FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The US dollar increased vs. the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar, but decreased vs. the yen...
On Monday March, 17 the US dollar was traded mixed amid controversial statistics in the USA. The US dollar increased vs. the yen, but decreased vs. major commodity currencies...
On Friday March, 14 the US dollar decreased vs. the yen. The euro, and the pound sterling, but slightly increased vs. major commodity currencies having lost 0.2% to the dollar index amid the US Consumer Confidence decrease to 4-months low...
On Thursday March, 13 the US dollar increased vs. the euro, but decreased vs. the yen and major commodity currencies amid strong US data. The euro dropped after Draghi
On Wednesday the US dollar increased vs. the Canadian dollar and the yen amid finished meetings of the Bank of Canada and Japan...
On Monday the US dollar was traded with fall Vs the most major currencies after the release of weak Non-Farm Payrolls, but rose Vs the pound, and almost didn
This Monday the US dollar was traded with slight decrease Vs most major currencies amid weak US macro statistic data. The data of consumer confidence and personal income appeared to be worse than expected...
The US dollar fell slightly on Monday Vs the euro and the yen and almost did not change Vs the pound and commodity currencies amid contradictory statistics...
The US dollar was traded downwards on Tuesday Vs most major currencies before the FOMC meeting next week where a decision on QE tapering may be made but anyway it will be probably small, which is unlikely to support the dollar...