By the end of the week the dollar had grown slightly by 0.2%

August 19, 2013

The dollar was traded slightly upwards on Friday against most major currencies despite consumer confidence decline in the USA. Building Permits and Housing Starts also grew in July a little less than forecasted. Prelim U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell unexpectedly to 80 p. in August from the highest reading 85.1 p. prior month since July, 2007. Mortgage rate rise can bring down the momentum of the real estate market growth which contributes to economic development.

By the end of the week the dollar had grown slightly by 0.2% according to the dollar index that shows its attitude towards the basket of six major currencies. The dollar showed the largest growth Vs yen (+1.38), Swiss franc (+0.44%) and Canadian dollar (+0.44%); it almost didn’t change against the Australian dollar (+0.10%) and the euro (+0.08%) and dropped against the pound (-0.77%) and New Zealand dollar (-0.77%).  

Meanwhile according to the Bloomberg poll, 65% of the experts expect the Fed to announce tapering off of bond purchase program at the nearest Fed meeting in September and probably the first step will be a decrease by $10 billion. Important events for the dollar are expected in September: Fed meeting on September 18, the federal elections in Germany on September 22, continuation of US discussions on the next fiscal year budget.

The coming third week of the month is poor for significant data. The main event in the euro-zone will be Thursday release of French, German and the whole euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. German Producer Price Index will be released on Tuesday and German Final GDP for the second quarter – on Friday.

The UK Second Estimate GDP for the second quarter will be released on Friday. On Wednesday Public Sector Net Borrowing and CBI Industrial Order Expectations will be released on Wednesday and BBA Mortgage Approvals – on Friday. In Canada retail sales data will be released on Thursday and Consumer Price Index – on Friday. Trade balance of Japan will be released on Monday. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday.

In Australia on Tuesday there will be a release of the last meeting minutes of Australian Reserve Bank. Westpac and Conference Board Leading Indexes will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. In New Zealand there will be a release of quarterly reports: Producer Price Index – on Monday and expected inflation in two years – on Tuesday. 

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released on Wednesday. Existing Home Sales will be released on Wednesday and New Home Sales – on Friday. Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be published on Tuesday and House Price Index – on Thursday. Annual Economic Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from on August, 22-24. As expected, the Fed governor Ben Bernanke will not take part in it, which may lower the significance of this event for the markets.

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