26 August, 2013
The US dollar lost on Friday all its weekly slight growth and fell after a weak New Home Sales report. In contrast to Existing Home Sales that showed the highest reading for almost 4 years – New Home Sales slumped unexpectedly in July by 13.7% in comparison with the prior month to 394 thousand houses at an annual rate. The sales have turned out the lowest since this January and showed the sharpest decline since May, 2010. The June reading was also considerably revised for the worse – from 497 to 455 thousand houses. FOMC member Bullard said on Friday that the Fed had no necessity to hurry with the reduction of the incentive program.
Sales decline in July amid mortgage interest rate rise may signal a pause in housing market recovery. An average rate on 30-year mortgage loan grew up to 4.58% per annum last week compared with the lowest level of 3.31% recorded in November, 2012. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the euro-zone grew to the highest level in August for more than two years - up to -15.6 from -17.4 in July.
By the end of the week the dollar had grown a little less than 0.1% according the dollar index that shows its attitude towards the basket of six major currencies. The dollar has grown Vs most major currencies except the euro (-0.40%) and Swiss franc (-0.55%). The largest dollar’s growth was Vs New Zealand dollar (+3.46%), Australian dollar (+1.62%), Canadian dollar (+1.57%) and Japanese yen (+1.18%). The pound showed the smallest decline (-0.28%).
This week there will be a release of retail sales data, labor market and inflation data, confidence and sentiment indexes. Most data will be published on two last days of the week. In the euro-zone unemployment, inflation data and European Commission confidence indexes will be released on Friday. In Germany IFO Business Climate report will be released on Tuesday and GfK Consumer Climate – on Wednesday, labor market and inflation reports – on Thursday and retail sales – on Friday. In Italy retail sales will be released on Wednesday and unemployment and inflation reports – on Friday. Confidence and sentiment indexes are expected to grow which will become another sign that economic recovery in the second quarter is going on.
In the UK it is a day off on Monday and there won’t be a lot of data this week. The main event may become the Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s speech where he is expected to discuss a new strategy of the Bank of England on providing monetary policy Forward Guidance. On Wednesday CBI Realized Sales will be released, on Thursday - GfK Consumer Confidence and on Friday - Mortgage Approvals.
In Japan retail sales report will be published on Thursday and on Friday a large statistics block of the end of the month will be released: inflation, unemployment, industrial production. In New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence will be released on Thursday and Building Permits – on Friday. In Australia Private Capital Expenditure report will be released on Thursday and Private Sector Credit – on Friday. In Canada quarterly Current Account report will be released on Thursday and the GDP for June and for the second quarter – on Friday.
In the USA on Monday there will be a release of Durable Goods Orders data. On Tuesday - CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/Case-Shiller HPI. On Wednesday Pending Home Sales will be released. On Thursday – revised GDP for the second quarter. On Friday Personal Income and Spending report, Chicago PMI and Revised U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
On Tuesday March, 18 the US dollar was traded mixed before the announcement of 2-days FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The US dollar increased vs. the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar, but decreased vs. the yen...
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On Monday the US dollar was traded with fall Vs the most major currencies after the release of weak Non-Farm Payrolls, but rose Vs the pound, and almost didn
This Monday the US dollar was traded with slight decrease Vs most major currencies amid weak US macro statistic data. The data of consumer confidence and personal income appeared to be worse than expected...
The US dollar fell slightly on Monday Vs the euro and the yen and almost did not change Vs the pound and commodity currencies amid contradictory statistics...
The US dollar was traded downwards on Tuesday Vs most major currencies before the FOMC meeting next week where a decision on QE tapering may be made but anyway it will be probably small, which is unlikely to support the dollar...
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