17 December, 2013
The US dollar fell slightly on Monday Vs the euro and the yen – and almost didn’t change Vs the pound and commodity currencies amid contradictory statistics. The US industrial output rose more than forecasted while manufacturing PMI strengthened less than expected. The euro was traded upwards amid the euro-zone manufacturing PMI growth to 31-month high.
The dollar recovered some loss after the U.S. industrial output release. Industrial output rose to 101.3 in November from 100.2 in October, having exceeded the top of recession for the first time and having shown the historical height – which has become another sign of the U.S. economic growth rate acceleration.
The U.S. industrial output rose by 1.1% in November compared with October while a growth by 0.6% was expected. This is the highest growth rate for a year. Prior month data were revised upwards. Capacity Utilization Rate grew by 0.8% to 79% above expectations.
At the same time manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than forecasted. Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 0.98 p. in December compared with -2.21 p. in November while a growth to 5 p. was expected. Flash Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.4 p. in December Vs the final reading 54.7 p. in November and forecasted growth to 55 p.
The euro grew on Monday after two days of decrease amid the euro-zone Manufacturing PMI growth. Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMI grew to 31-month high in December. At the same time euro-zone Services PMI dropped to 4-month low. Euro-zone Composite PMI maintained only to 3-month high. In France both manufacturing and services PMI decreased. In Germany only manufacturing PMI has risen which continues pulling the whole euro-zone.
The euro-zone trade balance surplus rose 1.6 times in October to 17.2 billion euro compared with 10.9 billion in September. ECB president Mario Draghi making speech in the European Parliament on Monday said again that economic recovery in the euro-zone was still fragile – price pressure would be still moderate and interest rates in the region would stay at the current low level for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, the ECB got 3-Year LTRO Repayment - for the loans given at the end of 2011 within LTRO first round – for the highest since February 22.7 billion euro.
The yen rose amid the decrease of Japanese stock market – Nikkei fell on Monday by 1.6%. Pressure was put by Chinese manufacturing PMI decrease. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to its low 50.5 p. for the past three months n December from 50.8 p. in November while the index was expected to grow. At the same time Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to its high in the fourth quarter since December, 2007. However, concerns managers worsened the forecasts of Business Spending for the current fiscal year and the next quarter estimate.
On Tuesday March, 18 the US dollar was traded mixed before the announcement of 2-days FOMC Meeting on Wednesday. The US dollar increased vs. the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar, but decreased vs. the yen...
On Monday March, 17 the US dollar was traded mixed amid controversial statistics in the USA. The US dollar increased vs. the yen, but decreased vs. major commodity currencies...
On Friday March, 14 the US dollar decreased vs. the yen. The euro, and the pound sterling, but slightly increased vs. major commodity currencies having lost 0.2% to the dollar index amid the US Consumer Confidence decrease to 4-months low...
On Thursday March, 13 the US dollar increased vs. the euro, but decreased vs. the yen and major commodity currencies amid strong US data. The euro dropped after Draghi
On Wednesday the US dollar increased vs. the Canadian dollar and the yen amid finished meetings of the Bank of Canada and Japan...
On Monday the US dollar was traded with fall Vs the most major currencies after the release of weak Non-Farm Payrolls, but rose Vs the pound, and almost didn
This Monday the US dollar was traded with slight decrease Vs most major currencies amid weak US macro statistic data. The data of consumer confidence and personal income appeared to be worse than expected...
The US dollar was traded downwards on Tuesday Vs most major currencies before the FOMC meeting next week where a decision on QE tapering may be made but anyway it will be probably small, which is unlikely to support the dollar...
The US dollar rose considerably on Friday Vs the yen; it fell Vs the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar; it almost didn