US dollar decreased vs. the yen. The euro, and the pound sterling, but slightly increased vs. major commodity currencies

March 17, 2014

On Friday March, 14 the US dollar decreased vs. the yen. The euro, and the pound sterling, but slightly increased vs. major commodity currencies having lost 0.2% to the dollar index amid the US Consumer Confidence decrease to 4-months low. The US Producer Price Index data appeared to be worse than expected.

Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in March sharply dropped to 79.9 p. comparing with Revised U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in February at the level of 81.6 p., whereas the increase was not expected. Consumers’ concerns were related with economy prospects. Current Assessment in March slightly rose, whereas Expectations dropped to the lowest level since November.


Producer Price Index decreased in February by 0.1%m/m against the expectations of growth by 0.2%. Core Producer Price Index Ex Food and Energy Supplies dropped by 0.2% comparing with the previous month, whereas growth by 0.2% was expected.

On Friday the euro gained back all the losses of Thursday, when the European currency dropped after ECB Draghi’s testimony. The pound sterling appeared to be slightly worse amid extension of the UK Trade Balance deficit in January to 4-month low. The yen continued its growth amid concerns about weak economy data in China and aggravation of tension in Ukraine. AUD and NZD corrected downwards after considerable growth of the previous days.

According to the results of the previous week the US dollar lost 0.36% to the dollar index having continued the decrease to DX for the third week in a row. The US dollar demonstrated multidirectional dynamics vs. major currencies – it decreased vs. the yen, the New Zealand dollar, the Swiss franc, and the euro – but increased vs. the pound sterling, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. The yen increased vs. the US dollar most of all, and the US dollar demonstrated the largest growth vs. the pound and the Australian dollar.

The main event of the coming week will be Fed’s 18-19 March Meeting, during which QE3 Tapering is expected to reduce by another $10B. Meeting Minutes will be announced on Wednesday, and FOMC Press Conference will take place; FOMC Economic Projections will be released as well.

On Monday in the USA Industrial Production, Capital Inflow, Empire Manufacturing PMI, and NAHB Housing Prices data will be released; on Tuesday – Building Permits, New House Starts and Consumer Price Index; on Wednesday – Current Account; on Thursday – Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Bank Stress Test Results.

On Monday in the Eurozone Final Inflation data will be released; on Tuesday – Trade Balance; on Friday – Current Account and Preliminary Consumer Confidence. On Tuesday German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released; and on Thursday – Producer Price Index. The Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision will be announced on Thursday.

On Wednesday in the UK Bank of England last Meeting Minutes and Labor Market data will be released; on Thursday -  CBI Industrial Order Expectations; and on Friday – Public Sector Net Borrowing. BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Annual Mais Lecture at CASS Business School in London. On Wednesday Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will perform Annual Budget Release.

On Wednesday in Japan Trade Balance will be released. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is due to speak at the International Financial Symposium and on Thursday he is due to speak at the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tokyo. On Tuesday in Australia Reserve Bank of Australian last Meeting Minutes will be released.

On Monday in New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment is going to be released; on Wednesday – Trade Balance; on Thursday – 4th Quarter GDP data. On Tuesday in Canada Manufacturing Sales will be released, and on Friday – Inflation and Retail Sales. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is due to speak at the Chamber of Commerce in Halifax.


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