This week, the dollar may fall to 117.5 yen

January 12, 2015

The December statistics on the US labor market published on Friday, did not provide sufficient support for the world's reserve currency. Despite the decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, and the growth of employment outside the agricultural sector in the US by 252 thousand, investors preferred to fix a part of long positions in the US dollar due to a 0.2% (m/m) fall in the average hourly wage. According to the minutes of the December of the Federal Reserve meeting, the US regulator will start raising interest rates, even with the consumer inflation below the 2% level, however, not earlier than April 2015. Nevertheless, this week, the world's reserve currency is likely to react nervously to the publication of consumer price inflation in the US for the month of December. Its expected fall to 1.0% (y/y) may cause the USDJPY pair to decline to the 117.50 level.

This week, the statistics on the volume of industrial production, inflation and foreign trade in the euro zone could put pressure on the euro. Meanwhile, given the clear oversold euro, in the short term, a corrective growth in the EURUSD pair to the 1.1900 level can not be ruled out.

On January 13, attention should be paid to the publication of the inflation statistics for the UK, on 14 January - to the retail sales data in the United States, on January 15 - to the December statistics on the labor market in Australia. During the week, the pound may re-test the 1.5050 level, and the Aussie may gain a foothold in the 0,8250-0,8350 range.

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