The only way is down for now

March 11, 2015

For the single currency, down appears to be the path of least resistance, the daily chart showing only one positive close so far this month (Monday) on EURUSD. For sure, this has been a time of dollar strength, helped by the latest US employment report, but only the Norwegian Krone has depreciated more than the euro over this time (leaving aside the Brazilian Real). The interesting thing is that already the ECB is struggling to find bonds to purchase in Germany, because they said that the deposit rate (at -0.20%), is as low as they will go in terms of yields. This has already ruled out some bonds in Germany. Still, whilst yields are being crushed, so in the single currency. EURGBP is now close to 0.7000, having pushed above 1.40 on GBPEUR yesterday, which is how the UK media and public like to look at it. Naturally, there is an increasing risk that the one-way traffic on the EUR reverses at some point, but calling this continues to look like a dangerous game.

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