Patience required ahead of Fed

16 March, 2015

All eyes on the Fed this week as the market becomes more and more focused on whether the word “patience” will be dropped from their statement this Wednesday. Considering the focus that certain wording elements of the Fed’s statements have attracted in the past it will not come as a surprise if they remove “patience” to avoid any further controversy, but no doubt observers will pick up on other or new language to gauge the tone from the Federal Reserve, with particular scrutiny being given to their latest dot chart update. Their challenge however is to deal with further evidence that the US economy is not a strong as had been previously thought, with last week revealing poor retail sales and a weak Michigan Consumer Sentiment number. Whilst unemployment continues to fall, wage inflation remains below what the Fed had been hoping to see and so calls for a hike in June seem premature. Markets are pricing in late summer to early autumn for the first hike as US Treasury yields fail to recapture the highs set following the nonfarm payroll earlier in the month.

Things are quiet on the economic data front today, although US industrial production will be watched closely at 13.15 GMT. Sterling will be a focus throughout the week as we build up to Wednesday’s UK Budget, the final one to be delivered by the incumbent administration ahead of May’s General Election.


Source link  
Divergence Between Fed and BoJ

The March FOMC meeting will be held for two consecutive days from today. The interest rate decision will be announced at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 15th March...

Market Volatility Expected Ahead of President Trump's Speech

In a speech that will be watched by millions of viewers in the United States and around the world, the President is expected to speak of his presidency and address pressing issues like his plans for health care, the tax system, the military, and his goals for his administration...

Gold Trades Below Resistance Ahead of the Fed and NFP

We will see the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Prices Paid for January, at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday 1st February...


Sterling Struggles Ahead of Theresa May's Speech

Theresa May will make a speech outlining her plans for Brexit tomorrow, Tuesday 17th Jan, before the UK triggers Article 50 to leave the EU...

Dollar Turn-around on Trump's Press Conference

President Elect Trump's first press conference after his victory in the US presidential election, was held yesterday around at 16:00 GMT. It has caused great volatility to the dollar and the markets...

Gold Nears Major Resistance Ahead of Trump’s Press Conference

Gold prices have rebounded since mid-Dec after testing the significant support line at 1120. On the 4 hourly chart, gold bullish momentum has been strengthened since the beginning of this year, helped by the dollar retracement...


Searching for a new narrative

Popcorn at the read today as President elect Trump has a scheduled news conference later in the day (around 16:00 GMT). Markets have become used to listening to him in 140 characters or less over the recent weeks, so a more elongated narrative should be welcome...

The sterling conundrum

Yesterday's early weakness in sterling, on the back of the latest comments from PM May surrounding Brexit, took cable close to key support levels and the resilience seen through most of the post US election period has been unwound...

Selling into USD strength

In summary, Friday US jobs report was pretty much in line with expectations, although the slightly better data on earnings gave some support to the dollar into the end of the week. As a result, the US currency was little changed from Tuesday opening levels...

  


Share: