Tighter ranges on majors

April 10, 2015

We are seeing daily ranges in major FX pairs move lower as the dollar continues in what can best be described as a corrective phase. The 10 day (simple) average range of EURUSD has moved to near the 6-month average of 1.1 cents (or 110 pips). It peaked over 2 cents in the wake of last month’s Fed announcement. USDJPY is much below the similar 6 months average of the 10 day range. This is largely a reflection of the change in FX drivers we’ve seen, with the many easings of policy that were being seen globally earlier in the year fading, together with expectations of higher rates from the Fed in the first half of 2015.

For equities, great excitement for some as the Nikkei touches the 20,000 level overnight (for the first time since 2000), but the yen has been distinctly non-plussed by it. After all, it’s only another number. Elsewhere in Asia, the latest inflation data in China has confirmed the soft outlook, with CPI steady at 1.4% YoY and PPI at -4.6% in YoY terms. We also saw weaker housing market data in Australia, with Home Loans rising 1.2% in Feb, only partially reversing the (revised) 1.7% decline seen in the previous month. The Aussie has softened a touch, below the 0.77 level. Note that UK production data is see at 08:30 GMT today, with sterling getting a little more sensitive to the election, the result of which still remains very uncertain.

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