15 April, 2015
The pair euro/dollar fluctuations finished the European currency increase. The European statistics published the Italy March consumer price index final data (CPI) in accordance with the expectations of + 0.1% m/m, -0.1% y/y. The Spain consumption prices index is also consistent with the expectations on the annual basis -0.7% against the previous- 1.1%.
The pair euro/dollar upward correction ended after the bulls’ unsuccessful attempts to break through the resistance near 1.1000-1.1020. Having resumed its decrease, the pair came close to the lows that it reached this year at the level of 1.0480-1.0500.Then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.0630-1.0650.
The support levels are 1.0610-1.0630, and the resistance levels are 1.0770-1.0790.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The level of 1.0770-1.0790 can be tested in the short term. Shall the pair test this level we expect the pair rebound towards the level of 1.0500. We do not exclude some profit taking at the current levels or near 1.0480-1.0500 with the pair rebound upwards which is likely to be used for the short positions opening.
The pound was on the new local lows still the support on the fresh extremes stopped the pair’s decrease and provoked its rebound upwards. As a result the "cable" took profit at the end of the day. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out with a slower growth to + 0.2% m/m, + 0.0% y/y after + 0.3% m/m, + 0.0% y/y; the retail price index came out worse than expected (RPI ) + 0.2% m/m, + 1.1% y/y after + 0.5% m/m, + 1.0% y/y. The psychological level of 1.5000-1.5020 remained insuperable barrier for the pair. Having resumed its decrease, the pair tested the fresh low at the level of 1.4540-1.4560 after which it rebounded to the resistance around 1.4770-1.4790 and closed the trades above this level.
The support levels: 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4920.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The level of 1.4900-1.4920 testing can be in the short term and its breakthrough will open the way towards 1.5000-1.5020. However, profit taking at the current levels or on decline to 1.4520-1.4540 should not be ruled out that it may dependent on the UK consumer inflation data publication.
The pair dollar/yen was also growing at the beginning of the week, still the trading sentiment has changed in the market and at the end of the session the Japanese yen turned out to be a leader against its US opponent. The yen received the growth impulse after the Bank of Japan pointed out to the stimulating economy program benefits, easing speculations about additional stimulus in the short term. The pair USD/JPY has been in the consolidation phase for several months after growth near the 122nd figure. All bulls’ attempts to overcome this level were unsuccessful. The pair continued to be sold off on dips, but later the resistance near 121.30-121.50 became a barrier. Moreover, the dollar did not manage to consolidate above the 120th figure and it is again trading below it, having tested the support near 119.05-119.25.
The support levels: 119.05-119.25, and the resistance levels: 120.20-120.40.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The level of 119.05-119.25 testing increases the decrease risks towards 117.95-118.15. The dollar needs to rise above 120.00 and break through the abovementioned resistance for its growth resumption.
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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