The euro is growing

May 6, 2015

The main currency pair once again changes its trajectory of motion: in the last few weeks, the euro skilfully uses the weak US statistics.
The euro/dollar is growing again. At the moment this is more like a retest of previous highs, but there are too many important macroeconomic reports, not to keep them in sight.
The market once again turns to the question of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System. On Tuesday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Narjana Kocherlakota said that this year the rate hike looks out of place. According to him, the inflationary pressure will not rise to the target level of 2% as the Fed expects. Moreover, speaking about inflation, Kocherlakota noted that the consumer price index will remain below the target level for a couple of years. In other words, Kocherlakota is convinced that the Fed will be able to work effectively if it does not touch the rate before the end of 2015. Maybe this actually makes sense.
Tonight there will be two significant releases. The first - an updated report of the EIA on oil and petroleum products in the United States this week. These are important to the commodity market, and as a consequence, the market rates. The second release we are interested in is the data on the number of jobs in the private sector for April from ADP. It is the "first sign" of Friday's reports on the employment market for the last month. March was truly a "failure" for this type of statistics, and in April, a correction and improvement of performance is expected. Strong reports will strengthen the position of the US dollar.
The euro/dollar will trade in the range of 1.1185-1.1245 before the evening block of statistics.
 
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