Gold is still highly prized

19 May, 2015

XAU/USD:

For the first part of the week, this metal will be demanded as US currency is sold on Forex market. Index of US dollar basket USDX closed the past week on 93.29 and negative potential is not exhausted yet. Investors are very sceptical now about US currency because of weak US releases and a strong demand in US dollar can occur in psychological level 90.00. So, we can expect growth of golden rates up to 1240/1255, where investors may try to take profit on long positions. Weak PPI and retails sales from the USA do not allow to expect a positive report on April inflation on May 22 (Friday). That will get gold price down because it is usually used to hedge inflation risks. Against this background, you can open Buy on descension of quotes to the area 1216/1203 and to take profit on the level 1240.

XPT/USD and XPD/USD:

Platinum group will be based in flat in the coming week. From side one side, descension of quotes of US currency will support demand in metals. From another side, US citizens are not ready to increase their expenses now. In this regard, we can expect that demand in cars will get down and it may lead to a further pull down of price. We can highlight 1141 - 1179 range for XPT/USD and 773 -805 for palladium (XPD/USD).

S&P500:

This may sound strange but weak US statistics will support US stock market, because FOMC is not expected to toughen monetary policy. PPI report clearly shows that we don’t have to expect a strong growth of inflation. Manufacturing which performs as a cyclical indicator also points that we don’t have to expect an upsurge of US economy in the second quarter. Some speakers of the Fed Reserve expect that national economy would follow example of 2014 when GDP slump was changed by a strong upsurge in in the second quarter. However, that upsurge was anticipated by a confident growth of manufacturing based on results of March and April, whereas now this index has got 0.3% decline. Differential of short-terms and long-term bonds also points out that FED is not going to start a cycle from raising of the rate. So we have received a tendency of consolidation of US stock market. However, the reports on inflow of capital into US bonds show that demand in bonds has grown which says that we don’t have to expect a significant growth of S&P500 index. During this week, you can open Buy on descension of quotes to the area 2111/2090 and take profit on the point 2130.

Alexander Goryachev
Analyst of «FreshForex» company


Source link  
Range 1.5586-1.5651

Daily chart: the pair continues to be a wide flat range within the envelope Bollinger (1.5417-1.5711). Expectations: touching zone 1.5586 and rising to 1.5651...

We do not expect much volatility today

The daily chart: it is likely that flat status of ADX forecast to the Pound the day with a low volatility. We expect a calm trading around the middle Bollinger band (1.56)...

Flat day

Daily chart flat state of ADX and Bollinger envelopes say that the pair will spend the day (and the nearest time) within the present range: the upper envelope (123.39-125.17)...


Target is at 125.17

Daily chart: the upper Bollinger band rose even higher - at 125.17 and now this mark is an actual target for growth. So, we wait for growth to 125.17, but in the area of 124.47 we can probably meet turbulence and a possible rollback...

We shall buy to 125.09

Daily chart: the pair has predictably broken Inside bar up and now is moving to the upper Bollinger band (125.09) (125.09)...

Looking for short signals from resistance 1.1140 or 1.1224

Daily chart: the Euro preserves a growing tendency and continues to rise to the upper Bollinger band (1.1224), which, given the state of ADX, is likely to be corrected downwards to the middle band (1.10)...


Weekly review: gold, S&P500, Brent oil

Monthly chart: scenario of reversal is justifying itself. Northern marks are still achievable, but the bullish momentum has depleted to a notable extent...

Support is possible around 1.0789

Daily chart: Euro is still forced down. Currently the target is 1.0789 (the bottom Bollinger band). Somewhere you meet a significant support for a correction and as a result new sales area to move on trend...

Weekly review of S&P500 index, oil and gold

Monthly chart: bulls bolted off to work on the upper Bollinger band (2190.6), but ADX is persistent in its decline, so we are waiting for a downward reversal...

  


Share: