For the first part of the week, this metal will be demanded as US currency is sold on Forex market. Index of US dollar basket USDX closed the past week on 93.29 and negative potential is not exhausted yet. Investors are very sceptical now about US currency because of weak US releases and a strong demand in US dollar can occur in psychological level 90.00. So, we can expect growth of golden rates up to 1240/1255, where investors may try to take profit on long positions. Weak PPI and retails sales from the USA do not allow to expect a positive report on April inflation on May 22 (Friday). That will get gold price down because it is usually used to hedge inflation risks. Against this background, you can open Buy on descension of quotes to the area 1216/1203 and to take profit on the level 1240.
XPT/USD and XPD/USD:
Platinum group will be based in flat in the coming week. From side one side, descension of quotes of US currency will support demand in metals. From another side, US citizens are not ready to increase their expenses now. In this regard, we can expect that demand in cars will get down and it may lead to a further pull down of price. We can highlight 1141 - 1179 range for XPT/USD and 773 -805 for palladium (XPD/USD).
This may sound strange but weak US statistics will support US stock market, because FOMC is not expected to toughen monetary policy. PPI report clearly shows that we don’t have to expect a strong growth of inflation. Manufacturing which performs as a cyclical indicator also points that we don’t have to expect an upsurge of US economy in the second quarter. Some speakers of the Fed Reserve expect that national economy would follow example of 2014 when GDP slump was changed by a strong upsurge in in the second quarter. However, that upsurge was anticipated by a confident growth of manufacturing based on results of March and April, whereas now this index has got 0.3% decline. Differential of short-terms and long-term bonds also points out that FED is not going to start a cycle from raising of the rate. So we have received a tendency of consolidation of US stock market. However, the reports on inflow of capital into US bonds show that demand in bonds has grown which says that we don’t have to expect a significant growth of S&P500 index. During this week, you can open Buy on descension of quotes to the area 2111/2090 and take profit on the point 2130.
Analyst of «FreshForex» company