20 May, 2015
Despite the ups and downs of the world currencies against the USA, the pair USD/JPY is notable for the stable movement in the channel of 122.00–116.00. Deviations in both directions as a rule do not exceed 120 points. On the one hand, it is easy to make forecast in this conditions, supposing further movement in price in the range of 121.20–118.80; on the other hand, it is difficult as in the long-term a lot will depend of the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan.
Currently, the interest rate of Japan is 0.1%. In the short-term monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will remain soft; however, in case of deterioration of economic statistics the interest rate can be lowered.
This morning at 02:50 (GMT+3) the pair was supported by the Japanese GDP for Q1 (real GDP rose by 2.4% in January-March against the forecast of growth by 1.5%).Tokyo stocks and Nikkei went up.
At 21:00 (GMT+3) the minutes of the US Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be released. If the minutes give positive assessment of the economic and financial situation in the USA, the pair will get additional support and in case of breakdown of the level of 121.20, the price will reach the level of 121.50, the growth can continue up to 122.00 until the end of the week.
If the US news is negative, the pair will go to the bottom limit of the channel at 118.80, on its way breaking down the levels of 120.00, 119.80 and 119.30. However, it is unlikely that the pair will go further down.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 118.80, 119.60 and 120.00.
Resistance levels: 121.20 and 121.50.
It is recommended to place pending orders BuyStop at the price 121.20 with the targets of 121.50 and 121.75.
Alternative scenario: pending orders SellStop at the price of 120.50 with the targets of 120.00, 119.60, 119.30 and 118.80.
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...
|8||Fort Financial Services||67%|