24 June, 2015
As there are no news releases in Canada this week, the pair will largely be affected by the USD dynamics and news from the US and the EU. Yesterday’s positive news on Geek crisis caused stock exchange indexes to grow. Greece’s General Index grew by 6.1%, CAC-40 by 1.2%, DAX by 0.7%, Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.1%, S&P 500 by 0.1% and Nasdaq Composite by 0.1% (to its second day all time high). The USD rapidly grew against all major currencies.
Controversial news came out in the US yesterday, some figures worse than their forecasts. Durable Goods Orders for May shrank for the third time in four months by 1.8% compared to April (forecasted -0.6%). At the same time, new home sales grew by 2.2% to 546K (forecasted 522K).
Since today’s opening the pair is trading in the narrow channel. The pair is supported by the expectations about possible September rate hike in the US. And it’s under the pressure from growing oil prices based on the expectations of shrinking oil reserves in the US. The latest EIA figures are released today at 5:30 pm (GMT +3). July futures for WTI crude oil on NYMEX rose by 1% to $61.01 per barrel, Brent on ICE rose by 1.8% to $64.45 per barrel.
Important news from the US today include Annualised GDP data for the first quarter, Gross Domestic Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures that are due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3).
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1.2290 (23.6% Fibonacci correction to the upward trend from the level of 1.0650 on July 2014). There are 2 more strong support levels below: 1.2140 (EMA144) and 1.1975 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 38.2%).
The pair is moving in the upward channel between 1.1290 and 1.2700.
On the 4-hour chart OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. However, the price remains near strong support levels: 1.2310 (EMA144 and EMA200) and 1.2290 (Fibonacci 23.6%). On the daily chart, OsMA histogram is rising and long positions can be opened after it crosses zero line.
Support levels: 1.2290, 1.2140, 1.1975.
Resistance levels: 1.2360, 1.2525.
As soon as OsMA and Stochastic on both 4-hour and daily charts give signals, open long positions from 1.2140, 1.2210, 1.2290 with stop-loss at 1.2090 and targets at 1.2360, 1.2525, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2725, 1.2800.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.2140 with targets at 1.1975 and 1.1720.
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...
|8||Fort Financial Services||67%|