USD/CAD: in the absence of news in Canada on 24.06.2015

24 June, 2015

Current trend

As there are no news releases in Canada this week, the pair will largely be affected by the USD dynamics and news from the US and the EU. Yesterday’s positive news on Geek crisis caused stock exchange indexes to grow. Greece’s General Index grew by 6.1%, CAC-40 by 1.2%, DAX by 0.7%, Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.1%, S&P 500 by 0.1% and Nasdaq Composite by 0.1% (to its second day all time high). The USD rapidly grew against all major currencies.

Controversial news came out in the US yesterday, some figures worse than their forecasts. Durable Goods Orders for May shrank for the third time in four months by 1.8% compared to April (forecasted -0.6%). At the same time, new home sales grew by 2.2% to 546K (forecasted 522K).

Since today’s opening the pair is trading in the narrow channel. The pair is supported by the expectations about possible September rate hike in the US. And it’s under the pressure from growing oil prices based on the expectations of shrinking oil reserves in the US. The latest EIA figures are released today at 5:30 pm (GMT +3). July futures for WTI crude oil on NYMEX rose by 1% to $61.01 per barrel, Brent on ICE rose by 1.8% to $64.45 per barrel.

Important news from the US today include Annualised GDP data for the first quarter, Gross Domestic Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures that are due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3).

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.2290 (23.6% Fibonacci correction to the upward trend from the level of 1.0650 on July 2014). There are 2 more strong support levels below: 1.2140 (EMA144) and 1.1975 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 38.2%).

The pair is moving in the upward channel between 1.1290 and 1.2700.

On the 4-hour chart OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. However, the price remains near strong support levels: 1.2310 (EMA144 and EMA200) and 1.2290 (Fibonacci 23.6%). On the daily chart, OsMA histogram is rising and long positions can be opened after it crosses zero line.

Support levels: 1.2290, 1.2140, 1.1975.

Resistance levels: 1.2360, 1.2525.

Trading tips

As soon as OsMA and Stochastic on both 4-hour and daily charts give signals, open long positions from 1.2140, 1.2210, 1.2290 with stop-loss at 1.2090 and targets at 1.2360, 1.2525, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2725, 1.2800.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.2140 with targets at 1.1975 and 1.1720.


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