EUR more focused on spreads than Greece

June 25, 2015

Kit Juckes, Strategist at Societe Generale, argues that the current Bund-Treasuries spread could be the main driver of the pair.

Key Quotes

“Greek debt talks, stalled as the IMF pushes for less reliance on tax increases and a greater focus on pension reform, resume at noon UK time today and markets are in ‘wait and see’ mode”.

“The fall-out of the Greek negotiations is more likely to be felt in CEE currencies than inEUR/USD, which is still doing a good job of watching the Bund-Treasury spread more than the events in Brussels”. 

“However, the conclusion is that if some kind of patched-up deal can be agreed, the focus will switch to next week’s raft of key US economic data and EUR/USD’s next move will be a function of ISM and NFP. Back, in fact, to business as usual”.

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