GBP/USD: review and forecast on 30.06.2015

June 30, 2015

Current trend

This week the pair GBP/USD opened with a gap below last week’s close and reached 1.5663. The GBP has followed the European currency that fell in the light of Greek crisis. Nevertheless, the GBP soon gained back all the losses and reached 1.5736.

The large block of macroeconomic stats from the UK, the US and the EU is due today. The final GDP figure is coming out in the UK. Markets expect a small quarterly increase from 0.3% to 0.4% that amounts to an increase from 2.4% to 2.5% for the year. In the US Consumer Confidence index is due, an increase from 95.4 to 97.3 points is expected.

Should the forecasts match the actual figures, the USD is likely to strengthen and the pair GBP/USD would decline.

The main attention of investors are on Greece this week. This problem is still not resolved, which may lead to Greece defaulting on its debts and put the Euro and the GBP under pressure.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.5802 (24 June high), 1.5929 (18 June high, upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.6000 and 1.6100 (psychologically important levels).

Support levels: 1.5650 (38.2% Fibonacci), 1.5565 (50% Fibonacci, upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5480 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 1.5805 with targets at 1.5929, 1.6000 and stop-loss at 1.5790. Short positions should be opened at 1.5650 with targets at 1.5565, 1.5480 and stop-loss at 1.5670.

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