2 July, 2015
The uncertainty around Greece, the USD growth and world supply increase keep maintaining pressure on the price of oil. Yesterday’s data on oil reserves in the US surprisingly showed an increase by 2.386 million barrels instead of anticipated 2.075 million barrels reduction. The level of reserves now is much higher than the last 5 years average value.
Iranian oil is likely to join the world supply if the negotiations on Iran nuclear program end successfully on 7 July. Furthermore, according to Citi Futures analysts, the total oil output by OPEC countries could have increased by 6% to 32.1 million barrels a day.
Nevertheless, the markets attention remains on the US Non-farm Payrolls data that is due today. Should the actual figure match positive forecasts, the USD would strengthen. After that a small correction and a flat until Tuesday’s Greek referendum is likely.
Support and resistance
The price has been moving along the upward correction channel from year’s lows of 46.00 and since April is trading in the range between 61.00 and 67.00.
On the daily chart, the growth remains restricted by resistance levels of 69.00 (EMA200) and 65.50 (EMA144). The price broke down the support level at 62.80 (23.6% Fibonacci) and is moving along the downward channel (green color) towards 60.80 (June lows) and, if the trend continues, towards 58.00.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic remain in the sell zone.
Support levels: 61.00, 60.80, 60.00, 58.00.
Resistance levels: 62.80, 63.90, 64.80, 65.50.
Open short positions from the levels of 62.80, 62.40 with targets at 61.00, 60.80, 60.00, 58.00 and stop-loss at 64.10.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 65.50 (EMA144 on the daily chart) with targets at 67.00, 69.00, 72.70 (38.2% Fibonacci).
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...
|8||Fort Financial Services||67%|