Jobs and the dollar

July 2, 2015

We should see the focus move away from Greece today with the US nonfarm payroll numbers released a day early ahead of the long holiday weekend. Yesterday we saw the dollar flip a little higher on the firmer than expected ADP numbers and today’s official numbers will go some way in determining whether the Fed are able to raise rates in September. The expectation is for a moderation in growth from the 280k rise seen in the May numbers, to around 230k in June. The unemployment rate is seen moving down to 5.4% from 5.5%. Earnings are seen rising 0.2% on the month. If it were just down to the the raw jobs numbers, the Fed would have hiked already. As it is, the wobble in the economy in Q1, together with the fall in inflation and inflation expectations, has held the Fed back from the first move.

Elsewhere, there was little surprise to see Eurozone Finance Ministers bat away the latest approaches from Greece, so it’s all down to this weekend’s referendum. The single currency has drifted a little over past few sessions, but the options market continues to suggest volatility ahead, not surprising given the impending referendum. USDJPY has just about closed the opening gap lower from the weekend, starting the European session just above the 123.40 level. We’ve also seen AUDNZD move above the 1.14 level, the kiwi continuing to soften on further rate cut expectations.

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