Jobs and the dollar

2 July, 2015

We should see the focus move away from Greece today with the US nonfarm payroll numbers released a day early ahead of the long holiday weekend. Yesterday we saw the dollar flip a little higher on the firmer than expected ADP numbers and today’s official numbers will go some way in determining whether the Fed are able to raise rates in September. The expectation is for a moderation in growth from the 280k rise seen in the May numbers, to around 230k in June. The unemployment rate is seen moving down to 5.4% from 5.5%. Earnings are seen rising 0.2% on the month. If it were just down to the the raw jobs numbers, the Fed would have hiked already. As it is, the wobble in the economy in Q1, together with the fall in inflation and inflation expectations, has held the Fed back from the first move.

Elsewhere, there was little surprise to see Eurozone Finance Ministers bat away the latest approaches from Greece, so it’s all down to this weekend’s referendum. The single currency has drifted a little over past few sessions, but the options market continues to suggest volatility ahead, not surprising given the impending referendum. USDJPY has just about closed the opening gap lower from the weekend, starting the European session just above the 123.40 level. We’ve also seen AUDNZD move above the 1.14 level, the kiwi continuing to soften on further rate cut expectations.


Source link  
All Focus on US inflation data

The USD has weakened further overnight as the market awaits important US Data at 13:30 GMT. USDJPY broke down under 107.000, while...

Central Bank speakers start a quiet week

UK MPC Member Vlieghe spoke at the Resolution Foundation in London. Some of the comments made were: If there is less credit headwind to the UK economy...

Equities Face a Nervous Session

The global equity markets are bracing themselves for a stormy closing session this week, as data from Thomson Reuters Lipper unit shows US fund...


Super Thursday for the Bank of England

The Bank of England is expected to largely proceed as normal today on ‘Super Thursday’ when the central bank releases its policy decision and statement...

US Nonfarm Payrolls Today

Today is Non-farm Payrolls day in the US. This data release is generally one of the most important of the month, being a leading indicator of consumer...

Australian Dollar drops after soft data

The Australian dollar eased on Thursday following weaker-than-expected economic data. The Australian Dollar took an initial knock on Wednesday on...


Trump Supports a Strong Dollar

Markets have had a volatile session this week thanks to various US officials and yesterday was no exception, with President Trump speaking in Davos...

A Weaker Dollar is Good for the US

Yesterday, Senior US Officials took the lead from their President and made clear the US position on Trade. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross...

U.S. Government Shuts Down

The U.S. government shutdown over the weekend as the Senate failed to pass a bill to keep the funds flowing late on Friday. The Democrats are making...

  


Share: