Last chance saloon for Greece

July 8, 2015

It looks like Greece has finally been given an ultimatum by its creditors in a last ditch attempt to save the country from leaving the Eurozone. A deal must be presented by Thursday with the deadline of Sunday to thrash out the details and agree on a new bailout. But given the Greek government’s approach to negotiations since it came to power in January, anything can happen in that time. The ECB has made it clear that their support for Greek banks will end next week and the Eurogroup has “a Grexit scenario prepared in detail” if a deal is not struck. The odds of a new deal being agreed are heavily stacked against the optimists, if indeed there are any optimists left. We can expect volatility to remain high going into the weekend and certainly next week if Grexit ensues.

Away from Greece today’s other important market events include the UK’s emergency budget and this evening’s FOMC minutes. Both could move the markets, in the case of the budget scrutiny will be given on the OBR’s growth forecasts given the deterioration of the situation in the Eurozone and proposed welfare cuts, which in turn could give insight into when that first rate hike from the Bank of England will come. The FOMC minutes have greater potential to move the dollar where investors will want to see how improved inflation prospects and wage growth might translate into greater potential for a September rate hike, but given the dovish bias to growth forecasts and external threats to the US economy that remain we feel September is too early for the Fed to make its first move.

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