Another day another deal

July 14, 2015

As far as the single currency was concerned, the celebrations were all too brief after the Greek deal yesterday. The lifting of the near-term uncertainty allowed stocks indices to gain in Europe by 1-2%, but the impact on bond yields in other peripheral markets (e.g. Italy) was more transitory, with the initial declines having been unwound by midday. You can read more on our take on the deal in our blog, Greece will be back. We start today with a different deal, this time with regards to Iran and the talks that have been over-shadowed by Greece for the past 2 weeks. Iran has agreed to halt its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. As news emerged of this at the start of the European session, the oil price fell, by around 2% on the front Brent crude contract as the market anticipates more supply ahead. At the margins, this news will prove to be dis-inflationary, so putting less pressure on the Fed to tighten rates this year.

Elsewhere, the UK inflation data today will be a welcome distraction, with the headline rate seen falling back down to 0.0%. Cable has softened from the highs close to 1.56 seen yesterday, but there is little expectation that stronger numbers could shift the thinking of the Bank of England, with rates seen on hold for the remainder of the year. Later on, there is some interest with the ZEW survey, released at 09:00 GMT. US retail sales data are seen rising a modest 0.3% when the June data is released at 12:30 GMT. Looking ahead, there is a raft of China data released overnight, including GDP, industrial production and retail sales, which will be closely against the backdrop of the recent fall in stocks.

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