Dollar giving up gains

July 22, 2015

FX markets have been something of a sideshow this week compared to what we’ve seen in commodities. That said, there was a notably softer tone to the dollar yesterday afternoon, evident on all of the majors. For the Aussie, this allowed for a push above the 0.7440 level, with some reversal seen overnight on the back of the latest CPI data and comments from RBA Governor Stevens. Inflation data, on the headline measure at least, was softer than expected, rising 1.5% YoY vs. expectations for an increase of 1.7%.

For the day ahead, the BoE minutes to the July meeting will be of interest to sterling, especially in light of the recent comments from Carney hinting that a rate hike may come earlier than markets expect. Naturally, his is only one view of 9 on the committee, but if there is a sense that things are shifting towards his way of thinking, then sterling may seek to regain some of the recent again the dollar, which yesterday took cable back below the 1.5550 level. EURGBP is also worth watching after the recent move below the 0.70 level which the market has struggled to sustain yesterday as the single currency pushed ahead against the dollar. Otherwise, there is also the matter of the RBNZ decision late this evening, where a further cut in the main repo rate to 3.00% is anticipated. This is largely priced into the kiwi, which has been falling since the last meeting, so there is low risk of them doing more or getting more aggressive on their view of currency strength. The kiwi trades at 0.66 after the bounce from 0.65 at the end of last week.

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