The euro is under pressure from circumstances

July 31, 2015

By the end of the week the main currency pair is trading down – statistics play against the euro. On Friday morning, the EUR / USD tried to stabilize, and it succeeded until the German economic reports started coming out. There was nothing to rejoice to, and the main currency pair returned to the downward movement.

Retail sales in Germany in June, excluding the seasonal adjustment, increased by 5.1% y/y. The seasonally adjusted index fell in June by 2.3% m/m against the forecast of growth of 0.3%. It turns out that in the midst of discounts and sales, the retailers fail to attract the flow of customers. On top of that European businesses said that in yearly comparison, in the current season, there is clearly a reduction of Russian buyers, who usually up to 40% of total sales in the summer.

Yesterday a preliminary calculation of the US GDP for the second quarter was released and showed growth of the economy by 2.3% q/q with the forecast of growth of 2.6% q/q and a rather disastrous start of the year. It is worth noting, how deftly the U.S. deals with previous figures: the report for the first quarter was once again revised and again with an increase from -0.2% to + 0.6%. Who will dig into the old numbers? No One will. And suddenly the figures come out beautifully. Where, I wonder, did the winter slowdown of consumer activity, and lower retail sales go, as well as other economic parameters of a slow down.

In the euro/dollar there is now probably very little reason for potential growth. Most likely, the pair will stop in the range of 1.0935-1.10 and will be waiting for news there.

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