7 August, 2015
During the Asian session oil prices rose slightly, however the general downwards trend continues. The USA is likely to lift the export ban on crude oil; thus, US oil together with Iranian oil will be added the existing global oversupply. In the medium term, the excess of supply over demand remains the main factor affecting the oil prices.
Today, Non-farm Payroll is released in the USA. The statistics may show the growth in employment rate, US economy improvement and, as a result, the increase in the demand for oil in the short run. However, the oil prices are likely to continue falling after a short-term correction.
Support and resistance
The price is in the downwards trend since 2014 and is falling to the year lows 47.00-45.00 $ per barrel.
OsMA and Stochastic on the weekly chart are giving sell signals; however, on the 4-hour chart they are giving buy signals. On the daily chart the indicators are turning into long positions.
A short-term upwards correction to 50.00, 50.50, 51.00 and maybe to 52.50 is possible. However, a sharp fall may follow, thus, two scenarios are possible. Wait when the correction finishes and indicators turn to sales or open small long positions with short stop-losses. The second one is more risky.
Support levels: 49.00, 48.10, 47.00.
Resistance levels: 50.50, 51.50, 52.50, 55.00.
Open short positions when indicators on the 4-hour char turn to sales (OsMA is below the zero line, Stochastic is below “50” level). Pending sell orders are also relevant from 51.50, 52.00, 52.50 with targets at 50.00, 49.00, 48.10, 47.00, 46.75 and stop-loss at 55.50
Alternative long positions may be considered only when the level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) is broken through. In this case, targets may be 60.80, 62.80 (Fibonacci 23,6%).
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...