Last nonfarm before Fed rate lift off?

September 4, 2015

The FOMC rate decision nears, now under two weeks away and it is still the view of many that today will be the last nonfarm payroll figure before the Federal Reserve commences its rate tightening cycle. In order to see the first hike in over nine years this month we will have to see a spectacular headline nonfarm payroll, which is expected to come in at 220k, at the same time it will help to see average earnings beat forecasts too with the Y on Y figure expected at 2.1%. The unemployment figure is expected to decline from 5.3% to 5.2% but these standalone figures are unlikely to settle the financial markets that have been severely rattled by the Chinese stock market bubble bursting.

Calls are coming far and wide from the IMF to emerging economies for the Fed to keep rates on hold and yesterday’s dovish ECB meeting will have been noted by Janet Yellen. US Treasuries are softer this morning as we head towards the release of the US employment data which has the potential to cause some volatility today and as we near September 17th more and more signs point to the Fed remaining on hold.

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