New quarter resilience

October 1, 2015

There was a certain resilience evident in overnight markets, with the release of not so exciting data in China and Japan failing to deter gains in equities and also risk currencies. There is something about the Aussie that means it does not want to stay below the 0.70 level on a sustained basis, with a reasonable bounce seen overnight up to the 0.7050 level. The key Japan Tankan index was mixed, with the large manufacturing series slightly weaker at 12 (expected 13) with non-manuf rising by greater than expected 25 (expected 20). USDJPY weakened back above the 120 level, so for now at least a sustained move below this level remains elusive. The interest one to watch remains cable, which continues to break lower towards the 1.50 level. The non-manuf PMI data in China was broadly in line at 49.8.

For today, we have a raft of final PMI data in Europe, together with the initial release of manufacturing PMI in the UK at 08:30 GMT. It’s then about the weekly claims data and the ISM manufacturing series in the US at 14:00 GMT. After the gyrations seen earlier in the week, we’ve at least seen some stabilisation in the in equities and emerging market FX, which has also fed back into the the weaker yen and stronger Aussie mentioned above. We’ve seen one of the worst quarters for emerging market FX since the late 90s so there is naturally some feeling that the sector is more ripe for some correction.

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