The Australian dollar is raising its head

October 2, 2015

The AUD/USD pair is trading upward the second day in a row due to fairly good Chinese publications.

The Aussie is quiet confidently responding to the statistics from China published this morning, On Thursday it became known that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of China increased in September to 49.8 points against 49.7 points in August. The market forecast was neutral and assumes a level of 49.7 points. This report shows that conditions in the manufacturing sector are gradually improving - slower than we would like but nevertheless. The components of the release show that the number of new orders in the last month has increased markedly, and stepped over the psychologically important threshold of 50 points.

Today a report by Caixin was published, which also measures the level of business activity, but for the service sector. In September, the figure was 47 points with the August level of 47.3 points. Maybe a certain drawdown is visible because of the end of the high season. For the non-manufacturing sector this is important. But in any case, this is only a preliminary calculation.

Directly in Australia a report on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was also published today. It is calculated by AiG. According to these observations, the indicator rose in September to the level of 52.1 points against the level of 51.7 points in August. This is the best value of the indicator since May of this year, and it's a positive thing. With everything else, the index is growing the second month in a row.

All this together allows the Australian dollar to move away from the local minimum, where it is pushed now and again by the US counterpart. However, the current recovery should still be evaluated as a pause - fundamentally the Aussie should weaken to allow the economy to recover. The same opinion is shared by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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