The story is not with jobs

2 October, 2015

We arrive at the much-feted first Friday of the month when the US employment report is released. The strength and sustainability of the labour market recovery has never been in much doubt this year. We’ve not see a sub-100 reading on headline payrolls since mid-2012, with the 6 month average having been above 200k for the past 18 months. The market looks for a 200k rise, but it’s worth noting the revisions, with a risk that August is revised higher and the tendency for September to also be revised higher in subsequent releases. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.1%, with earnings rising 0.2%. Meanwhile the jobs data in Japan has shown their rate moving marginally higher to 3.4%, but the yen has been content to fight with the 120 level as previously discussed yesterday.

Overall, FX has been in a more consolidative mood this week. The potential breakouts we’ve been looking at have generally reversed, such as USDJPY moving lower, EURGBP moving higher and the Aussie failing to break below 0.70 on a sustained basis. It’s difficult to see the dollar reacting massively to the jobs data today, because the markets beta to a potential hike from the Fed has fallen, with the chances of a move this year having diminished and the pricing for October at less than 20%. There’s also a declining beta to what the Fed says, given the false signals peppered through the year to date.


Source link  
Markets pressured by Huawei problem

Alphabet and some other American IT companies have suspended business with Huawei, which is one of the first examples of major consequences for...

The climate is changing rapidly

British people need to fly less, drive electric cars, eat little meat and turn their home thermostats down to 19 degrees Celsius (66 Fahrenheit) in order to rein...

Chinese stocks saw their worst week

Chinese stocks have taken investors on a ride this year. Shanghai and Shenzhen have been the best performing global markets this year, with the Shanghai...


Risk-sensitive currencies on the rise

Stock markets show growth after the release of strong data for China and Japan as their respective PMIs were better than expected which supported...

Trump again puts pressure on OPEC

President Donald Trump told OPEC on Thursday that its members should start pumping more oil, marking his second warning to the producer group this year...

Turkish lira fell by 5% before elections

The Turkish lira dropped by as much as 5 percent against the dollar on Thursday morning, as the country gears up for elections this weekend. The greenback...


May won't ask for a long Brexit delay

Prime Minister Theresa May won't ask the European Union for a 'long' delay to the Brexit deadline, her office said, after pro-Brexit ministers objected...

Demand for safe assets grows

Markets remain under moderate pressure, despite the Fed comments. Powell's semi-annual speech in Congress reinforced expectations that the US Central Bank...

US-China trade talks: deadline postponed

China's blue-chip index jumped more than 6% on Monday morning on news that Trump would postpone of the tariff's introduction. The U.S. President...

  


Share it on:   or