Macro events & news for October 16, 2015

October 16, 2015

FX News Today

Bund futures are outperforming and yields heading south, while Eurozone spreads narrow, as weak inflation numbers bolster hopes of further ECB easing. Pressure on Draghi to at least set the stage for a widening or extension of the QE program next week are mounting amid the uncertainty about the global growth outlook. Nowotny’s comments yesterday that even core inflation is clearly below target further fuelled speculation of additional measures, although the Austrian central bank head called for structural reforms rather than hinting at ECB action.

The Eurozone posted trade surplus of EUR 19.8 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports were up 6.0% y/y in August, versus nominal import growth of 3.0% y/y, although considering that lower oil prices are suppressing the nominal import bill, real import growth will have been higher.

Eurozone final CPI was confirmed at -0.1% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 0.2% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the drop back into negative territory was driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, which were down -1.7% m/m and -8.9% y/y, versus -7.2% y/y in August. Core inflation remains much higher at 0.9% y/y, but as Nowotny highlighted yesterday, this is also considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So more arguments for the doves at the ECB although the amount of stimulus in the system is already substantial and while central bankers want to keep markets happy they also seem wary of additional action, especially as monetary policy alone can’t fix the Eurozone’s problems.

Main Macro Events Today

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January 20, 2017
Advance in inflation across the Eurozone
Euro holds gains against the US Dollar ahead of the ECB rate decision, as majority of economists expect no major updates in the policy, while investors will be taking stock of Draghi rhetoric’s to foresee the timeframe of the next big move by the policymakers...
January 20, 2017
US oil inventory draw gave a temporally support for oil prices
Oil prices remained in red figures after Wednesday's bearish acceleration. Brent a little changed on the day and remained prone to more weakness on Thursday. The benchmark stayed neutral around 54.50 dollars per barrel flirting with the level during the European session...
January 20, 2017
Pound gives up gains
The British pound has pulled back sharply today after making its biggest 1day gain in nearly 20 years’ yesterday, as fears once again crept in about where Brexit will lead to...

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