ECB bringing volatility

22 October, 2015

For the past four sessions, EURUSD has been confined to the 1.13 handle throughout the trading sessions, another illustration of the falling volatility we’ve seen over the recent times. It would be hard to see this continuing today, with the ECB meeting taking place. The chances of further policy measures look to be slim at this point in time. Their quarterly survey of the credit conditions this week suggested that lending conditions were improving, but there remain concerns regarding the pace of recovery and continued low or negative inflation. The two primary reasons for not expecting any action today are the fact that we’ve not had strong hints from the central bank and also the options need to be explored, because simply buying more bonds on a monthly basis is not an easy option for them to enact.

As such, and given the level of the currency (helped by the weakness of the dollar), the market will be listening closely for any comments around the currency, given the proximity of the 1.15 level around which the ECB has tended to look a little more closely. The press conference starts at 12:30 GMT today. Leaving the ECB aside, we have retail sales data in the UK, released at 08:30 GMT, where 0.4% gain on the headline measure is expected. There is also the weekly claims data in the US and Existing Home Sales data at 14:00 GMT. EURJPY still worth watching ahead of the ECB, sitting above trendline support which currently comes in at 135.48.


Source link  
Divergence Between Fed and BoJ

The March FOMC meeting will be held for two consecutive days from today. The interest rate decision will be announced at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 15th March...

Market Volatility Expected Ahead of President Trump's Speech

In a speech that will be watched by millions of viewers in the United States and around the world, the President is expected to speak of his presidency and address pressing issues like his plans for health care, the tax system, the military, and his goals for his administration...

Gold Trades Below Resistance Ahead of the Fed and NFP

We will see the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Prices Paid for January, at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday 1st February...


Sterling Struggles Ahead of Theresa May's Speech

Theresa May will make a speech outlining her plans for Brexit tomorrow, Tuesday 17th Jan, before the UK triggers Article 50 to leave the EU...

Dollar Turn-around on Trump's Press Conference

President Elect Trump's first press conference after his victory in the US presidential election, was held yesterday around at 16:00 GMT. It has caused great volatility to the dollar and the markets...

Gold Nears Major Resistance Ahead of Trump’s Press Conference

Gold prices have rebounded since mid-Dec after testing the significant support line at 1120. On the 4 hourly chart, gold bullish momentum has been strengthened since the beginning of this year, helped by the dollar retracement...


Searching for a new narrative

Popcorn at the read today as President elect Trump has a scheduled news conference later in the day (around 16:00 GMT). Markets have become used to listening to him in 140 characters or less over the recent weeks, so a more elongated narrative should be welcome...

The sterling conundrum

Yesterday's early weakness in sterling, on the back of the latest comments from PM May surrounding Brexit, took cable close to key support levels and the resilience seen through most of the post US election period has been unwound...

Selling into USD strength

In summary, Friday US jobs report was pretty much in line with expectations, although the slightly better data on earnings gave some support to the dollar into the end of the week. As a result, the US currency was little changed from Tuesday opening levels...

  


Share: