ECB bringing volatility

October 22, 2015

For the past four sessions, EURUSD has been confined to the 1.13 handle throughout the trading sessions, another illustration of the falling volatility we’ve seen over the recent times. It would be hard to see this continuing today, with the ECB meeting taking place. The chances of further policy measures look to be slim at this point in time. Their quarterly survey of the credit conditions this week suggested that lending conditions were improving, but there remain concerns regarding the pace of recovery and continued low or negative inflation. The two primary reasons for not expecting any action today are the fact that we’ve not had strong hints from the central bank and also the options need to be explored, because simply buying more bonds on a monthly basis is not an easy option for them to enact.

As such, and given the level of the currency (helped by the weakness of the dollar), the market will be listening closely for any comments around the currency, given the proximity of the 1.15 level around which the ECB has tended to look a little more closely. The press conference starts at 12:30 GMT today. Leaving the ECB aside, we have retail sales data in the UK, released at 08:30 GMT, where 0.4% gain on the headline measure is expected. There is also the weekly claims data in the US and Existing Home Sales data at 14:00 GMT. EURJPY still worth watching ahead of the ECB, sitting above trendline support which currently comes in at 135.48.

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