Words louder than action

October 23, 2015

ECB President Mario Draghi maintained his reputation of moving markets without actually doing anything in the wake of yesterday’s ECB policy meeting. His openness towards further easing was the main factor pushing down the single currency and away from the 1.15 level which has caused previous pain for the central bank. But it wasn’t an explicit promise to do more, rather a pledge to re-examine at the early December meeting, in part on the back of the downside risks from emerging market strains. This takes EURUSD back down to levels last seen two months ago. There was also the follow-through on USDJPY (above 120.00), together with the downward pressure on cable, back below the 1.54 level.

Equities also lapped up the news, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 2.5%. This could make for a long few weeks as investors look towards the early December meeting. As we mentioned before, one thing is the intention, the other is the delivery and on that point, there is more debate to be had on exactly what the ECB can deliver at this point in terms of QE, given the constraints they are already facing in buying bonds. For today, there is an early focus on provisional PMI data for October in the Eurozone, where early indications for France suggest some slightly better numbers. No key US data today, although note that Canadian CPI data is releases at 12:30 GMT.

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