Divergence returns

6 November, 2015

The start of the year was all about policy divergence and if this week is anything to go by, then we are ending the year with the same tone. The Bank of England Inflation Report yesterday saw inflation projections revised lower, pushing back expectations for a rate to the early part of 2017. At the same time, we have the jobs data today in the US which is being hailed as the most important jobs release since… the previous most important one. Recall that it was the soft reading on the headline reading last month (142k gain) that served to scupper expectations of an October tightening from the Fed, which is why this is perceived as the make or break release. On balance, the market pricing is towards a tightening in December, but just under 60% probability, which brings considerable scope for volatility should this release fall short of or exceed expectations. Expectations are for a 185k gain on the headline number, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.0%, from 5.1%. Clearly it’s going to take another number notably weaker than expected to shift expectations away from December. And on top of all this, we have the ECB keeping the market on its toes for early December.

What matters though is actual moves in rates. We were seeing a lot of those early in the year, what we are seeing now is largely changing expectations and in the case of the ECB, more unconventional measures. So we may be heading for multi figure moves on FX as a result. It’s all about context.


Source link  
Cautious mood has returned to stocks

American markets ended trading on Wednesday with a slight increase. Asian bourses also experienced growth at the opening, but it was quickly...

Emerging markets rebound seems over

Asian markets have turned to a decline with a renewed force. After the rebound of last week, the index MSCI Asia ex Japan loses 1.2% and is only...

Rebound in Asian markets intensifies

On Friday morning, the demand for risks on the Asian bourses continues to recover. MSCI for Asia ex Japan is adding more than 1.2% this morning, having...


Reasons to rebound EM indices

Asian markets are adding after reaching 14-month lows the day before. Positive markets are supported by the reports about China's invitation to trade...

Strong data supports U.S. markets

Stocks of the Emerging Markets remain under pressure on Wednesday morning, with positive sentiments prevailing in American markets following...

Pound press dollar on news about Brexit

Michael Barnier, the EU's top negotiator on Brexit, called a reaching of the agreement on the deal within next 6-8 weeks realistic. This news supported...


Brent reversed from resistance level

Brent Crude Oil recently reversed down sharply from the major, multi-month resistance level 79.50 (which has reversed the price multiple times from the...

EM Markets sale-off spreading to DM

The current weakness on the developing countries financial markets is the longest since 2008. The similarities go further than that: as well as 10 years ago...

The price for trade uncertainty

The markets are cautiously on buy for American stocks, and the dollar adds on fears that trade conflicts are seriously stifling the business sentiment...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 4.42% and reached $6734.52124704. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has gained 1.2994% and is now at $1.1781. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has gained 13.77% and is now at $243.994987009. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets90%
2FXTMFXTM88%
3HYCMHYCM87%
4Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex86%
5FxProFxPro85%
6FIBO GroupFIBO Group84%
7OctaFXOctaFX83%
8HotForexHotForex82%
9FXCMFXCM79%
10AvaTradeAvaTrade77%
  


Share: