Macro events & news for November 12, 2015

12 November, 2015

Macro events & news for November 12, 2015

FX News Today

German final Oct HICP confirmed at 0.2% y/y, with the national CPI rate at 0.3% y/y, versus -0.2% y/y and 0.0% y/y respectively in September. The jump in headline rates largely reflects less negative annual rates for energy related prices. A marked rise and while still below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, a sign that inflation is moving back to the ECB’s target.

The AUDUSD outperformed on a solid employment report out of Australia, and while the credibility of the data has been called into question by at least some economists, few doubt that the validity of the underlying trend. AUD-USD is up 1.2% having rising above 0.7150. The employment report showed a rise of 58.6k, nearly triple the median forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2%. The details of the report were encouraging, including labour participation, aggregate hours worked and back revisions.

Reuters: ECB examines purchases of muni, regional bonds. Reuters reported that municipal and regional bond buying could be rolled out in coming months, with the plan likely to come in March next year. ECB officials are reportedly also examining the purchase of bonds from municipalities and German states ahead of the rate setting meeting in December 3. According to the report an unidentified person told Reuters that while muni bonds were risky, they had the backing of central governments. The step would widen the pool of eligible assets at a time when yields on both French and German 2-year yields have fallen so far into negative territory that they are no longer eligible for purchases under the QE program. It would also give the ECB more room to manoeuvre on a possible extension of the QE program.

US MBA mortgage market index sank 1.3% in data released earlier, in addition to an increase of 0.1% on the purchase index and a 2.2% decline on the refinancing index for the week ended November 6. There was a an 11 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.12% in the wake of stronger jobs data, which lifted the potential for December rate lift-off. For more on the relatively firm housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to be 269k (median 270k) in the week-ended November 7. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,170k for the week-ended October 31. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could delay rate hike expectations.

Canadian New Home Price Index is out today and projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August.

ECB President Draghi speech. Market participants will follow Draghi’s speech with interest as they wait for further clarification on the planned easing operations.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks. This is potentially yet another opportunity to hear what the Fed has been discussing on the interest rate policy. Markets expect that the December rate hike is a given and therefore the focus has turned to what Yellen might be communicating regarding the rate hike path in the coming year.


Source link  
FOMC said inflation will rise to 2% over the medium term

Asian stock markets mostly headed south ( Nikkei closed own -1.22% at 18, 914) ongoing concerns about am emerging global trade war, and as the dollar weakened after the Fed failed to signal a rate hike as early as March, which some expected after yesterday’s data round...

Asian markets were mixed overnight

US data reports: revealed modest shortfalls across the Q4 ECI data and the January figures for consumer confidence and Chicago PMI, though the shortfalls did nothing to change the outlook for GDP growth of 2.0% in Q1 after a 1.9% Q4 rise. A 0.5% Q4 U.S...

The selloff in equities continued in Asia overnight

The U.S. income report revealed a 0.3% December income rise after a small November boost that tracked assumptions, but a firm 0.5% consumption increase with a solid 0.3% real rise that modestly beat estimates...


Politics will remain omnipresent near term

This week’s heavy data slate is loaded with key releases, headlined by Friday’s January nonfarm payroll report. Jobs are forecast rising 190k after the disappointing 156k December increase...

Main Macro Events This Week

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to Make America Great Again...

U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production

Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate...


Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight

Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said...

The year is only a week old

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising animal spirits. The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets attention...

US stocks had a quiet day

USD fell back again overnight. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are all back from the extended Christmas holiday, but trading volumes are likely to remain thin for the rest of the week...

  


Share: