Macro events & news for November 19, 2015

November 19, 2015

FX News Today

BoJ’s Kuroda: Concern about balance sheet won’t stop any more easing; with BoJ’s Kuroda adding that he doesn’t see problems in the financial system from continuing easing. At the same time Kuroda said there is the possibility that the current low rate of CPI may affect wage growth, and that the BoJ will be watching the 2016 wage talks with great interest. Speaking at the briefing following the policy meeting where the BoJ left rates unchanged, he said there is no need to change the view that price expectations are rising over the longer term. We expect the BoJ to add further stimulus in the future.

Germany’s Schaeuble would prefer higher interest rates. Not that that the comments from Germany’s Finance Minister will impress Draghi much, who seems to be heading for another cut in the deposit rate in December, even though he admitted that the low interest rate environment is very challenging for banks and insurers.

FOMC minutes: most participants thought liftoff conditions could be met by December, and hence wanted the statement to show a December hike could be appropriate. Indeed, that was the message read by the markets. The minutes also showed most officials also thought global risks had diminished. Officials also mostly agreed that the process of removing accommodation would be gradual. This is all consistent with subsequent Fedspeak since the October 27, 28 meeting. But there was nothing definitive in the minutes that the FOMC will pull the trigger in 5 weeks’ time.

US housing starts undershot estimates with an 11.0% October drop after small downward Q3 revisions, leaving a weaker than expected report despite a 4.1% rise in permits. Starts were hit by a big drop for multi-family units with a concentration of weakness in the South and West.

Main Macro Events Today

ECM Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are revealed today and are studied carefully for further information and details on the expected easing by the central bank.

US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims for the week of November 14th are out today and should reveal a headline improvement to 267k (median 270k) after holding at 276k for the prior two weeks. The holiday season is typically a volatile time for claims and we expect November to set a slightly higher average of 266k for the month from 263k in October and 269k in September.

US Leading Indicators: The October Leading Indicators report is expected to reveal a 0.5% (median 0.4%) headline following a -0.2% headline in September and two months of flat readings before that. Most component data has been stronger in October and the improvements in the stock market should help lift the headline. For the whole story read our preview.

US Philadelphia Fed Index: The November Philly Fed should reveal a headline improvement to 0.0 (median -0.5) from -4.5 in October and -6.0 in September. The already released Empire State Index for the month improved to -10.7 from -11.4 in October. We expect producer sentiment to remain steady in November with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from September.

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