Mixed commodity currencies

November 20, 2015

It is going to be a quiet end to the week with a rather bare economic calendar today. As a result markets are calm going into the week end following a quiet Asian session overnight that had a positive bias to it. Investors seem to be more accepting of a possible Fed rate hike next month but for now the dollar’s strength has been put on pause, in particular against the Aussie which is testing 0.7200 at the time of writing and continues to hold above the 0.7000 level, but the major support in AUDUSD is seen below here at 0.6900. Although the link between the Aussie and Chinese economy is not as strong as it once was, heightened expectations of continued stimulus from China could see AUDUSD hold the 0.7000 level, but this will be tested in the weeks ahead as the next FOMC on 16th December nears.

The rate to watch today however is USDCAD as we see Canadian retail sales and inflation data at 13.30 GMT. The loonie has been feeling the pressure not only from the recent dollar strength, but the weakness in crude prices which hover just above their multi-year lows set in August. USDCAD is trading at 1.3310 this morning with major resistance seen around the 1.3400/50 area and any softer than expected Canadian data could see that tested today.

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