Aussie benefits from dollar pause

November 25, 2015

Volatility remains subdued during this quiet trading week and yesterday was an example of how disengaged investors are at this moment in time. Better than expected US GDP and Case-Shiller House Price data balanced out the bad consumer confidence and slightly worse numbers on Monday leading to a little profit taking in the dollar, but the wider picture in respect to interest rates and the next FOMC meeting remains unchanged. With US Thanksgiving tomorrow and the shortened trading week, already eyes are on next week’s nonfarm payroll figure although this now seems that it will be little more than a formality as the big dip in consumer confidence did little to move rate expectations. One of the main beneficiaries of the dollar’s inability to push higher is the Aussie where AUDUSD continues to push away from the 0.7000 level despite all that’s going against it in respect to lower commodity prices. This will be being closely watched by the RBA who would rather see the Aussie lower so next Tuesday’s RBA rate decision will be another important central bank meeting to watch in December.

From the US the weekly initial jobs numbers, a day earlier than normal, should be monitored, then the services and composite PMI at 14.45 GMT. Ahead of then UK markets will be keeping one eye on the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement which is unlikely to have too much impact on the markets although his plans for a government surplus by 2020 will have to change after all that’s happened recently with his tax credit proposals and the latest defence review.

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