30 November, 2015
Main Macro Events This Week
• United States: The U.S economic calendar is heavy at the start of the new month, with several important reports due this week, NFP for November employment numbers (Friday). An increase of 200k is forecast, with a steady 5.0% unemployment rate. Those should be more than strong enough to support expectations for rate liftoff. Other market moving data includes the ADP number (Wednesday), expected to show private payrolls rising 190k. ISMs are due, with the manufacturing index (Tuesday) expected to edge up to 50.5 from 50.1. The services index (Thursday) is projected to slip to 57.5 from 59.1, though still reflecting solid growth in the sector. Fed Chair Yellen speaks on monetary policy (Wednesday, Thursday), Yellen will also address the Economic Club of Washington (Wednesday), and then she testifies before the JEC (Thursday). Her speech should reiterate that a rate hike is likely appropriate this year.
• Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) highlights a busy week for Canadian data. Analysts expect no change to the current 0.50% policy setting, alongside a repeat of the bank’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook. The economic data calendar has November employment (Friday), expected to fall 10.0k after the 44.4k surge in October. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.0%, matching the 7.0% in October. Real GDP (Tuesday) is seen rebounding to a 2.3% growth pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) after contracting 0.5% in Q2. But September GDP (Tuesday) is seen flat following the 0.1% gain in August. The trade deficit (Friday) is anticipated to improve to a -C$1.5 bln in October from the -C$1.7 bln shortfall in September. Productivity (Friday) should rise 0.2% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% decline in Q2 as rising hours are outpaced by the expected retu rn to GDP growth. The current account deficit (Monday) is projected to narrow to -C$14.5 bln in Q3 from -C$17.4 bln in Q2. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October.
• Europe: The immediate focus is on the ECB meeting (Thursday), with markets looking to Draghi again. There remains the likely scenario for a cut in the deposit rate. Data releases this week , German HICP (Monday) , the overall Eurozone CPI reading (Wednesday) is seen at 0.3% y/y (median same), up from 0.1% y/y. Headline rates, as well as core inflation, have been trending higher, though that hasn’t stopped Draghi and Constancio from reviving talk about deflation risks in the Eurozone.
• UK: This week’s calendar features the BoE lending data for October (Monday). The Markit PMI surveys will be released too, starting with the manufacturing sector survey (Tuesday), followed by construction PMI (Wednesday) and services PMI (Friday).
• Japan: Preliminary October industrial production (Monday)is seen falling 0.5% m/m, versus the 1.1% gains seen in September. October retail sales (Monday) are expected up 0.5% y/y from the prior 1.7% gain for large retailers, and down 0.5% from -0.2% overall. October housing starts (Monday) are seen up 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, while October construction orders (Monday) are also due. The Q3 MoF capex survey (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 1.0% y/y from the previous 5.6% rise. November Markit/JMMA PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 52.8 from 52.4. November consumer confidence (Friday) likely advanced to 41.6 from 41.5.
• China: PMI reports (Tuesday) are on tap. The official CFLP November manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.5 from 49.8. The Caixin/Markit PMI outcome is seen at 48.2 from 48.3, while the services PMI is forecast to rise to 53.0 from 52.0.
• Australia: The AUD calendar is highlighted by the RBA’s meeting (Tuesday). Analyst expect no change to the current 2.00% rate setting, but economic data has been disappointing of late so the risk is skewed towards another 25 basis point rate cut. The economic data calendar is busy. GDP (Wednesday) is expected to improve to a 0.5% growth rate in Q3 (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q2. The current account (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to a -C$17.0 bln deficit from -C$19.0 bln in Q2. Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in October following the 2.2% gain in September. The trade deficit (Thursday) is seen worsening to -A$2.8 bln in October from -A$2.3 bln in September. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to raise 0.3% m/m in October following the 0.4% gain in September. The TD-MI inflation gauge is expected to raise 0.1% m/m in November after the flat reading in October.
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