The week of reckoning

November 30, 2015

Moving into December, it’s usually the time when markets start winding down for Christmas. As it is, there are two key events that will shape the month, the first of which arrives this week in the form of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The anticipated policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed has been a key driver on EURUSD since the middle of October, since when the dynamics on respective 2Y interest rates (which embody short-term rate expectations) have been moving firmly in favour of the dollar and against the single currency. The dollar index is once again nudging the 100 level this morning, whilst EURUSD is being pressured below the 1.06 level as the dynamics continue. What is true is that there is a huge burden of expectations on the ECB for this Thursday, meaning that if the ECB falls short of expectations, we’re going to be heading for a very large short squeeze on the euro.

Ahead of then, we have the initial readings of November inflation data in Germany at 13:00 GMT, with the market looking for the headline rate to move up from 0.3% to 0.4% in YoY terms. Many inflation rates are set to move higher over the coming months as the sharp fall in energy prices seen a year ago falls out of the YoY calculation. Elsewhere, on the crosses, EURJPY continues to set on the 130 level, with a push below still on the cards.

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