1 December, 2015
Today, traders will be turning their attention to news from Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the EU, Canada, the US and Australia. November data on Real Retail Sales is due at 10:15 am (all times stated in GMT+2) in Switzerland. The indicator is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% on an annual basis that can support the Swiss Franc.
At 10:55 am Germany releases a block of macroeconomic data for November, which includes Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI. All three indicators are expected to remain unchanged – Unemployment Change at -5K, Unemployment Rate at 6.4% and Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 points. Germany’s unemployment rate remains at 6.4% for quite a long time.
Markit Manufacturing PMI is due at 11:30 am in the UK. Analysts forecast a decline from 55.5 to 54 points. Generally, a result above 50 points indicates favorable economic conditions. Last time, when the indicator fell below the key level of 50 points, was in 2013. Moreover, Financial Stability Report is due at 11:30 am in the UK. The Report shows experts’ assessment of the current financial situation. Depending on the results, this publication can either support or negatively affect the Pound.
The EU releases its Unemployment Rate for November at 12:00 pm. According to the forecast, the indicator will remain unchanged at 10.8%
In the afternoon, market participants will be following news from Canada and the US. Canada’s Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter is due at 3:30 pm. The indicator is expected to grow from -0.5% to 2.3% that might strengthen the Canadian Dollar for a short period of time. RBC Manufacturing PMI for November is released at 4:30 pm. According to historical data, the Index has been tending to decline since July 2015. Last time, the indicator came in at 48 points that suggests a decrease in the sector. Negative tendency can continue in November as well.
At 5:00 pm, traders will turn their attention to data on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending, due in the US. Analysts expect that Manufacturing PMI will grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points, while Construction Spending will decline from 0.6% to 0.5%.
On Wednesday night, at 1:30 am, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens is giving his speech, which might determine the AUD dynamics. Furthermore, at 3:30 am, Australia releases its GDP statistics for the third quarter. In annual terms, a growth from 2.0% to 2.3% is expected. In quarterly terms, the indicator is forecasted to come in at 0.7% from 0.2% earlier. In this case, the AUD can gain significant short-term support.
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...
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