Dollar retreat

December 1, 2015

The dollar has been in retreat overnight as the risk environment at the start of the new month is positive. The latest PMI data in China was largely shaken off, the headline manufacturing series falling marginally from 49.8 to 49.6. The best illustration of the better risk tone has been the Aussie, AUDUSD pushing levels last seen since mid-October above the 0.7283 level, as the RBA leaves rates unchanged after its latest meeting. As we’ve pointed out before, the Aussie has shown a lot of resilience recently, helped by the fact that the secular bearish forces that have been pushing it lower over recent years could well be over. The kiwi has also been pushing ahead, pushing above the 0.6650 level on the strength of the latest house price data. Elsewhere, the euro has also seen some recovery, but the moves have naturally been a lot more muted ahead of Thursday’s crucial ECB meeting, EURUSD currently stalling just below the 1.06 level.

Today sees final PMI data for the Eurozone, with German labour market data also released just before 09:00 GMT. More risk comes from the UK manufacturing PMI data at 09:30 GMT, given no preliminary numbers are released beforehand. Cable touched the 1.50 level yesterday, but not on a sustained basis and the overnight dollar weakness has taken it back to the 1.51 level. This should keep the bears contained for now, but given the moves we’ve see on short-term interest rates, cable continues to look vulnerable to further losses. EURJPY continues to sit on the 130 level, as has been the case for the past week now.

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