Macro events & news for December 15, 2015

December 15, 2015

FX News Today

The European calendar today will focus on German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation data for November; USD traders will keep on eye on the CPI numbers, while the CAD could see some price action as the BoC Governor Poloz will make a speech later in the evening.

The USD is under some selling pressure ahead of today’s CPI numbers, and the EUR continues its charge higher, however, market volatility should prevail in the up-coming trading days as we move closer to the end of year FOMC highlight meeting on Wednesday. This meeting will set the trading stage for the future of the USD interest rate expectations.

U.S. stock markets finished up +103 points at the start of the week while stock markets in Asia stock ended mostly down; Japan’s Nikkei dropped by more than 1.6%. Oil prices are pulling back slightly after yesterday’s price rally, U.S. Oil is currently trading above the USD 36 per barrel mark in risk on trading.

The theme for the remainder of the week is an increase in market volatility ahead of the Fed rate decision tomorrow, however, its expected for markets to absorb the expected rate hike with ease since this event has had plenty of time to price in. Traders should never the less remain on alert as market’s surprises can never be ruled out.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR German ZEW: ZEW Investor confidence is seen rising slightly to 11.2 (med 17.3) from 10.4 in the previous month, although analyst view the risk is to the downside as the ongoing sell off in commodities has been weighing on stock markets and investor confidence. The prospect of a Fed rate hike meanwhile has been pretty much absorbed by the markets.

U.K. GBP CPI: We expect inflation to tick higher, forecasting the headline CPI rate to lift to 0.1% y/y (median same) from-0.1%, and the core CPI rate to rise to 1.2% (median same) from 1.1%. As the BoE has been foretelling, inflation will start to pick up as the impact of oil-driven price declines from a year ago start to drop out of y/y comparisons. The BoE is forecasting CPI to pick up through 2016, though only moderately, expecting that it will remain below 1.0% into the second half of the year.

USD Consumer Price Index: November CPI is out today and should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This follows October figures of 0.2% for both the headline and the core. Energy prices have kept inflation measures depressed recently and analyst expect that trend to continue in this release with an anticipated 2% gasoline price decline.

USD Empire State Manufacturing Index: The December Empire State Index is out today to kick off the month’s producer sentiment data. Analyst expect an increase to -8.0 (median -6.0) from -10.7 last month. Sentiment measures have been trending sidewards over the course of the fall with the ISM-adjusted average of all reports holding at 50 since September.

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