Pound remains weak

December 31, 2015

The GBP/USD pair is trading lower on Wednesday, and it was the fourth consecutive day of sales of the pound.

The British Pound continues to recede in tandem with the US currency. The current quote in the GBP/USD pair is 1.4801. The pound stands at the minimum of eight and a half months.

Yesterday the fans of the pound were upset by expectations – regarding the expanding spread between the monetary policy of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of England, and about the prospects for the New Year. The later the British regulator starts the phase of raising interest rates and the slower it will be, the greater will be the pressure on the GBP. The market is seriously discussing the probability of a referendum on the UK exit from the EU. It scares the market participants.

Today's statistics from the real estate market was not able to stop the decline of the pound. Housing prices in December rose by 4.5% y/y (0.8% m/m). It is the most powerful rate of growth since May of this year. Earlier it has repeatedly pointed to the likelihood of inflating "bubble" in the housing sector. This is confirmed by forecasts from Nationwide, the agency that monitors the real estate market. Nationwide do not exclude growth of housing prices by 3-6% during 2016.

During 2015 the British pound fell by almost 5% in tandem with the US dollar. Not a bad outcome, given the strength of the "American". But GBP still has a significant trump card: its regulator never in history went on the leash of the lobby, whatever it was. The Bank of England is conservative, but this is its strength: a step forward will be made only when the ideal time comes.

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