Macro events & news for January 20, 2016

20 January, 2016

Macro events & news for January 20, 2016

FX News Today

U.S. oil in Asian trade fell to its lowest since September 2003, below $28 a barrel. Crude Oil prices continue to drop as oversupply is seen as a driver for the recent low prices. Asian stock markets fell sharply overnight, led by hefty 3.71% declines in the Nikkei 225 and a 3.82% drop in the Hang Seng Index. This followed a new selling phase in oil markets.

The JPY has continued to gain strength and has been a currency over performer in recent trade as the fight to safety trade resumes in the wake of the troubled equity markets. At the time of writing, the JPY is trading higher against the USD by 1.14%.

Today, the economic calendar has some key data from the U.S. and Canada, US CPI, and the BoC rates decision are due later today. For the US, the CPI is expected to improve to 0.8% and for Canada, a rate cut is now partially priced in and the potential for the CAD to strengthen if BoC fails to deliver a rate cut remains an upside risk.

European markets are waiting for tomorrow’s ECB meeting; however, the European central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged. Traders will look to hear if Draghi delivers a dovish press conference that will keep the door open to further easing.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR German PPI inflation: Rose to -2.3% y/y in December, from -2.5% y/y in the previous month. This was in line with analyst forecast. The headline rate remains firmly in negative territory and even the ex-energy rate is negative at -0.6% y/y although slightly higher than the -0.7% y/y rate in November. All in all though no sign of a turnaround, especially as oil prices slumped since the end of last year and the data will only add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB for additional easing measures, even if Draghi is likely to take a wait and see stance for now.

USD U.S. CPI: December CPI data is out today and analyst expect the headline to remain unchanged (median unchanged) with the core measure up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective November figures of unchanged for the headline and 0.2% for the core. The continuation of declines in oil prices has weighed on recent price measures and will likely continue to do so in the CPI release.

CAD Canada Wholesale: Analyst expect wholesale shipments, due today, to rise 0.5% in November, breaking the string of monthly declines from July to October. Moreover, as gain for wholesale shipments and manufacturing shipments would be supportive of a bounce in November GDP following the flat reading in October and the 0.5% plunge in September.

Canada Manufacturing: Analyst expect shipments, due today, to rise 0.7% in November after the 1.1% drop in October. A 0.4% gain in export values provides a compelling reason to forecast a move higher in November manufacturing shipments. Notably, the gain in exports followed three straight declines (Sep, Oct, Nov) that correspond with the downtrend in manufacturing shipments.


Source link  
FOMC said inflation will rise to 2% over the medium term

Asian stock markets mostly headed south ( Nikkei closed own -1.22% at 18, 914) ongoing concerns about am emerging global trade war, and as the dollar weakened after the Fed failed to signal a rate hike as early as March, which some expected after yesterday’s data round...

Asian markets were mixed overnight

US data reports: revealed modest shortfalls across the Q4 ECI data and the January figures for consumer confidence and Chicago PMI, though the shortfalls did nothing to change the outlook for GDP growth of 2.0% in Q1 after a 1.9% Q4 rise. A 0.5% Q4 U.S...

The selloff in equities continued in Asia overnight

The U.S. income report revealed a 0.3% December income rise after a small November boost that tracked assumptions, but a firm 0.5% consumption increase with a solid 0.3% real rise that modestly beat estimates...


Politics will remain omnipresent near term

This week’s heavy data slate is loaded with key releases, headlined by Friday’s January nonfarm payroll report. Jobs are forecast rising 190k after the disappointing 156k December increase...

Main Macro Events This Week

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to Make America Great Again...

U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production

Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate...


Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight

Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said...

The year is only a week old

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising animal spirits. The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets attention...

US stocks had a quiet day

USD fell back again overnight. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are all back from the extended Christmas holiday, but trading volumes are likely to remain thin for the rest of the week...

  


Share: