Brent: will oil market swing back to pessimism?

February 4, 2016

API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market. By the end of the trading day yesterday April futures of crude oil Brent at ICE Futures fell to 32.62 USD per barrel.  Yesterday, price-spot for Brent was at the level of 32.20. Tonight, US Department of Energy will release official data on oil and petroleum reserves for the last week. It is expected that the growth will amount to 4.733 million barrels (in addition to the rise of 8.383 million barrels a week earlier). If the forecast turns out to be correct, the price of oil can drop below 32.00. Market participant have almost given up hope that the large oil exporters will reach agreement to reduce oil production. Most of the oil-producing countries intend to increase oil production instead of reducing it. Efforts of the countries to hold their share in the world oil market have increased after the lifting of international sanctions against Iran and the return of this country to the oil market. Last month, OPEC oil production increased by 50 000 barrels per day, up to 32.4 million barrels per day, including production in Indonesia, which has return to cartel. The increase of production in Saudi Arabia amounts to 50 000 barrels per day; 10.2 million barrels per day. A two-day decline in oil prices has already started to put pressure on the stock market. Yesterday, American stock indices dropped again. S&P500 fell by 1.9%, Nasdaq Composite by .,2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average by 296 points or 1.8%. If pessimism associated with the prospects of decline in excess of supply and to slowdown of the economic growth in China swings back to the oil market, oil prices will go to the recent lows at the level of 27.00.

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