Waiting for Yellen

February 8, 2016

The dollar reaction to US payrolls on Friday was relatively muted, given the shake-out seen in the middle of last week of dollar longs, but most managed to put the positive above the negatives, which was probably the best way to look at it. Earnings were firmer and the unemployment rate was lower, but with wider measures of slack remaining steady. What the price action of last week has done is to once again change the dynamics of the FX market. The yen has unwound all of the losses seen against the dollar in the wake of the BoJ’s move to move some interest rates into negative territory. It’s far less a question of the dollar vs. the rest of the world, merely because it’s supposedly in a tightening cycle whilst many others are facing in the opposite direction. As to what has replaced this mantra, for now it’s too early to tell.

For the week ahead, China celebrates its new year, so that should in theory put that story on the back-burner. Taking centre stage is likely to be Fed Chair Yellen as she testifies in her semi-annual monetary policy report on Wednesday and Thursday. Naturally, the change in pricing that has occurred so far this year, as compared to their projected rate path in December of last year, could well put her under some pressure on just how the Fed is now seeing the US and global economy. FX is likely to trade in a relatively muted fashion ahead of this, with no key data to distract. Commodities have also been on a more even keel of late, oil seemingly comfortable in the mid-30s level on the Brent active.

Publication source
FxPro information  FxPro reviews

September 26, 2016
The aftershocks of FOMC
The FED did not raise interest rates last week, as it was anticipated by many market participants. It seems like the FED decided to go with status quo and wait until a new American president is elected. We are waiting for a rate hike to take a place in December as it would be logical and a well justified thing to happen...
September 26, 2016
The week ahead: Focus shifts from central banks to politics
Monday’s US presidential debate will probably break a new record, not in the S&P 500, but the number of viewers which according to media analyst could reach over 100 million Americans, surpassing Carter-Reagan debate in 1980 which attracted 80.6 million viewers...
September 23, 2016
Risk rating
The market is in need of a new narrative. The Fed meeting in December is too far off and for now, the US election is not something that entices excitement. With central banks on hold, markets are pushing the envelope in terms of risk...

Vantage FX Rating
FXCM Rating
OANDA Rating
Orbex Rating
Tickmill Rating
Grand Capital Rating

Empire Option Rating
OptionsXO Rating
Grand Option Rating
Banc De Binary Rating
365BinaryOption Rating
TropicalTrade Rating