11 February, 2016
Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel. However, the rise in price was short-term and by the closing of the session the price fell to the level of 30.85. On Thursday, the decline in price continued. Future quotes for oil in NYMEX in Asia dropped below 27 USD per barrel. April futures of crude oil Brent at ICE Futures fell to the level of 30.40 USD per barrel. Total reserves of oil and oil products in the USA remain at the highest level over the past 80 years.
On Wednesday, OPEC lowered the forecast on demand world oil consumption; while in according to the forecast of International Energy Agency and US Ministry of Energy, oversupply will continue for many months.
Reserved statements by Janet Yellen on the possibility of interest rate increase in the USA in March did not provide support to oil prices.
Increasing oversupply of oil in the global market amid increasing competition between oil-producing countries will intensify “bearish” sentiments among traders.
Neither OPEC countries, no Russia or Iran are going to cut oil production. On the contrary, oil production is increasing. Russia has already reached the highest production level since the Soviet times. Earlier, Iran stated that until oil production does not increase from the current level of 1.1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels, the country will reduce production.
Today, Janet Yellen will continue her speech in the US Congress at 17:00 (GMT+2). If she indicates probability of the interest rate increase, oil prices will go further down.
US stock indices went up on Wednesday after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January, which was devoted to the US monetary policy. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - by 2.2%.
Past week was marked by a two-day speech of Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed. Mrs. Yellen did not give a straightforward answer regarding the interest rate increase at the US Fed meeting in March...
On Thursday, the price of gold strengthened by 4% and reached its year highs. The price has been growing amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and the Yen...
Over the past 2 weeks the Yen has significantly strengthened its positions against the USD due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Mixed macro-economic data on the US economy has decreased a chance that the US Fed will tighten monetary policy...
The currency pair is traded at the strong level of 1.0960 –1.1060. In case of maintenance and testing of the level and respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Stop order can be placed below the signal line...
Despite that fact that the data on Non-FarmPayRolls was below the forecast (151 000 against the forecast of 190 000 and 262 000 new jobs in December), the USD has grown against the major currencies. The rise was caused by the other data on the US labor market in January...
While market participants are waiting for the release of NFPR (Non-Farm PayRolls), oil prices are gradually declining since the opening of the trading day and at the beginning of the European session...
API (American Petroleum Institute) report, released this Tuesday, showed that last week US oil stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels. Obviously, it was a bad news for oil prices, as heavy stocks of oil in the USA creates situation when supply outruns demand in the world market...
Today, the Global Dairy Trade will publish price index for dairy products, reflecting weighted average of the change in price in percentage. For the economy of New Zealand, which is the largest exporter and supplier of the dairy products to the global market, dairy prices are of great importance...