Brent: oil reserves and oil prices have reduced

February 11, 2016

Yesterday, US Ministry of Energy announced about unexpected decline of oil and oil products reserves by 754 million barrels over the last week. Spot-price of crude oil Brent has grown over 31.80 USD per barrel. However, the rise in price was short-term and by the closing of the session the price fell to the level of 30.85. On Thursday, the decline in price continued. Future quotes for oil in NYMEX in Asia dropped below 27 USD per barrel. April futures of crude oil Brent at ICE Futures fell to the level of 30.40 USD per barrel. Total reserves of oil and oil products in the USA remain at the highest level over the past 80 years.

On Wednesday, OPEC lowered the forecast on demand world oil consumption; while in according to the forecast of International Energy Agency and US Ministry of Energy, oversupply will continue for many months. 

Reserved statements by Janet Yellen on the possibility of interest rate increase in the USA in March did not provide support to oil prices.

Increasing oversupply of oil in the global market amid increasing competition between oil-producing countries will intensify “bearish” sentiments among traders. 

Neither OPEC countries, no Russia or Iran are going to cut oil production. On the contrary, oil production is increasing. Russia has already reached the highest production level since the Soviet times. Earlier, Iran stated that until oil production does not increase from the current level of 1.1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels, the country will reduce production.

Today, Janet Yellen will continue her speech in the US Congress at 17:00 (GMT+2). If she indicates probability of the interest rate increase, oil prices will go further down.

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