A less chilled RBA

18 February, 2016

RBA Governor Stevens said before Christmas we all had to ‘chill’ over the Christmas and new-year period and see what the data said thereafter. So far, the data has held up OK, but the latest employment data overnight has fallen to the soft side, the rate rising to 6.0% (from 5.8%) and full-time employment falling by the most since October 2013. The Aussie was initially weaker on the data, but found some buyers below the 0.7150 level, which is where it’s hanging now. For now, it’s a bit of a race between the Bank of Canada and RBA as to who may cut rates first, both of whom have been hit by weaker commodity prices in different ways. Elsewhere overnight, we’ve see the Fed minutes bring some volatility to the dollar, but no lasting impact. The Chinese inflation data was a touch weaker than expected at 1.8%, but this is the secondary story compared to the real economy and credit picture.

Distractions for today will include the latest ECB Minutes from their meeting last month. This was when the market geared themselves for further policy action from the ECB at the March meeting, but this came more from the press conference comments via Mario Draghi, so it seems unlikely that there will be any major bombshells in the minutes. Sterling will be watching further comments from the meeting of EU leaders as the final treaty changes are discussed ahead of the anticipated referendum later this year. The summit lasts for two days and it appears likely that any referendum date would be announced in parliament as early as next week. Sterling, as we’ve said before, remains vulnerable, given the uncertainty created by the referendum and the large levels of overseas holdings of UK assets.


Source link  
Corporate Earnings Lift US Stocks

Last week the US President Trump stated on twitter...

Market Concerns Eased

The first-round voting of the French presidential election was revealed on Sunday night...

Dollar Plunged on Trump Second Statement

The dollar index fell to a 2-week low of 99.91 in the early hours...


Markets Eye on the First Trump-Xi Meeting

US President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet today at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida...

Will the French Presidential Election affect EUR?

The first round of the French presidential election...

USD Firms Ahead of Q4 GDP Final Reading

The dollar index has rebounded noticeably from a 4-and-a-half-month low of 98.85, helped by outperforming...


Divergence Between Fed and BoJ

The March FOMC meeting will be held for two consecutive days from today. The interest rate decision will be announced at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 15th March...

Market Volatility Expected Ahead of President Trump's Speech

In a speech that will be watched by millions of viewers in the United States and around the world, the President is expected to speak of his presidency and address pressing issues like his plans for health care, the tax system, the military, and his goals for his administration...

Gold Trades Below Resistance Ahead of the Fed and NFP

We will see the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Prices Paid for January, at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday 1st February...

  


Share: